Why the Story Broke When the Water Broke

Gov. Palin's sudden announcement of her 17-year old unmarried daughter's pregnancy was an attempt to fend off investigation into the more serious and more damaging charge that she faked a pregnancy in March and April to cover up for her daughter. Rumors to this effect had apparently been floating around Alaska since Gov. Palin's March 2008 announcement that she was then 7 months pregnant.

Had Palin not been tapped as a VP candidate, these rumors would never have hit the national scene, and there is a decent chance that they would have died quietly and been buried in an Alaskan snow bank while Palin enjoyed a rewarding political career at the state level. Ironically, I believe that it was Palin's ego and her lust for national exposure which ultimately led to speculation within the state that all was not as the Governor claimed (see previously posted blog for likely scenario of her actions.).

When Palin made her pregnancy announcement (stating that she was 7 months pregnant) it was widely met with disbelief because she did not look even remotely pregnant--let alone 7 months pregnant. She had not even disclosed her "pregnancy" to her staff. These facts were picked up in a contemporary newspaper article in the ADN (link to article in earlier post). However, Palin was not willing to really play the role of a 7-month pregnant woman to the full extent required to pull off the charade under national scrutiny (which , at the time, she was not really expecting, as the Veep slot was still a distant dream at that point.).

An undated photo of Palin in a red shirt, allegedly from one of her earlier pregnancies, shows her as "big as a house." It is certainly not a flattering image, and compared to photographs of her 7th month of pregnancy in March 2008 (at age 44) there is a shocking contrast. See the link in a post below for a shot of her at the National Governors' Association on 25 February 2008--which should have been at the 6 1/2 month mark according to her timeline. There is also video footage--extended footage--of the governor hiking briskly through the streets with a reporter. This footage shows her from many angles and in motion, and she does not look at all pregnant in this footage, although it was shot during her 7th or 8th month of pregnancy. And the flight crew from Alaska Airways that flew with her back to Anchorage when she was eight months pregnant, the night before she gave birth to a 6 lb. 2 oz. baby, did not notice that she was pregnant.

Sarah Palin, a former beauty pageant contestant and television reporter who still worked out, was viewed as a "fashion plate," and apparently relished her reputation as the "Hottest Governor," certainly did not relish the thought of having to appear pregnant and larger than she actually was. Here, faking a pregnancy during the cold spring months in Alaska certainly helped, as it was natural to wear thick and/or layered clothing without being too out of style. But when push came to shove, her ego frequently won out, and she did not want to play the role of a woman in her third trimester.

There are a few photos that have surfaced in which she may appear pregnant, but they are all really inconclusive (distance shots, some with people or objects in the way, etc.). In many of these images, she is wearing a black suit. (Perhaps the same black suit? Not wanting to invest too much money in a lot of bogus maternity outfits? Something for internet gurus to research.). Also, the photos that have surfaced are all from official events (no surprise there), with the point being that she would have reasonably expected cameras to be present and would have had added incentive to play the role at these functions.

Photographic evidence of her appearing pregnant can never be conclusive when intentional deception on her part is suspected, because common sense will tell you that you can make your body look fatter than it actually is, in fully clothed shots. Remember that this is springtime in Alaska--we're not talking summer on the south Florida beaches here. However, a single, verifiable, dated photograph of a trim Sarah Palin would be enough to disprove a false pregnancy claim. This is not at all a double standard. If you are pregnant and showing, you can't instantly remove your baby bulge, but if you are not pregnant, you can easily add it under your clothing.

However, the most reckless episode of her charade was her trip to Dallas, TX to address a governor's conference on energy, where she had been selected to deliver the keynote address. This was simply too good--attention that she had been craving--to pass up. Ignoring the fact that if she really was pregnant she should not have made the trip, Palin went to Dallas. And, if she could have gotten back to Alaska before her daughter's water broke, all would have been well.

Had Bristol Palin's water broke when her mother was in Alaska (especially if she was in Wasilla), there would have been a quiet, unremarkable trip to the hospital, and the press would have been presented with a new baby boy and little reason to question the Governor's birthing. The comments on her fit appearance during pregnancy--and most likely her lightning fast return to full health and a trim figure after the baby--may have raised a few eyebrows, but nothing more. The "smoking gun," so to speak, was Palin's absolutely bizarre behavior on 17 April 2008, when she stayed to deliver her address after her water had broken hours before, refused to see any doctors in Texas, flew for over 8 hours back to Alaska, and then bypassed more competent and better equipped hospitals to deliver her child in a tight-lipped small community that she had been mayor of previously.

While it is still possible that all of this is in error and Sarah Palin did actually give birth to Trig Palin, I think that the common sense interpretation of the facts (along with her daughter's alleged 5-8 month absence from school during this time) shows that she attempted to protect her daughter and her political career. She almost got away with it--had her ego and her unwillingness to pass up her opportunity to speak in Dallas not gotten in the way.

If I was in the McCain camp, I would be asking for her medical records right now--had that not been done previously when they "vetted" her. If the facts support her claims, then put them on the table and we can all move past this--and on to the rest of the long list of items about why she is not qualified to step into the presidency.

However, I don't believe that the medical facts are on her side. If Gov. Palin did deliver Trig, and the medical records verify this, the McCain/Palin camp would have an incredibly direct and effective way to rebut the rumors once and for all: here are excerpts from Gov. Palin's medical records that show that she gave birth to Trig. Done. While I certainly do understand and support an individual's right to privacy, Gov. Palin IS the presumptive nominee for the second highest office in the nation. And, there are issues of personal ethics involved as well. If you're the McCain campaign and you can kill these rumors once and for all, why not do it?

Not being willing to use the facts leads to the assumption that the facts are not on your side, which in turn leads to speculation, and to posts such as this one. The initial story (or "conspiracy theory") that got me interested in this issue was based on largely circumstantial evidence, and has been reinforced by McCain/Palin's actions. This circumstantial evidence did two things: first, it pointed to glaring inconsistencies in Palin's story; second, it pointed to a highly plausible scenario that was 100% consistent with the available facts and connected to several powerful motives.

Absent conclusive evidence, the weight of the circumstantial information at this point goes against Gov. Palin, and her case is not at all helped by simply announcing (without presenting conclusive evidence) that her daughter is 5 months pregnant. If untrue, using the daughter as a circumspect scapegoat is pretty low, even if it was her pregnancy that initially started the whole mess. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Gov. Palin ever explicitly claiming in her statement "I gave birth to Trig. My daughter did not." Without strongly and unequivocally denying the rumors, the statements from McCain/Palin that I read did three things: they discussed the daughter's pregnancy, stated that the information was released to counter internet rumors, and asked for a free pass because it was a personal matter of a family member.

Even if the press is willing to give the daughter a free pass, there are still the mother's actions
to look into. Being the presumptive Republican nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States does not entitle her to a free pass; instead it demands a higher level of scrutiny, accountability and responsibility.