Pundits have correctly pointed out that McCain's selection of Palin signifies that he is giving up on the "Obama lacks experience" argument. Since this seemed to have been making some headway, why give it up?
Because of Obama's political ability.
First, Obama showed a true statesmanship on his European and Mideastern tour. Can he get results? Honestly, we don't know. But he is clearly well-liked abroad, by both foreign leaders and foreign populations, which is a big plus to America after 8 years of "Yee-haw Diplomacy."
Second, Obama selected Joe Biden as his running mate, placing one of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Senate on his ticket. A great move, especially if Biden continues to praise Obama's judgment and reinforces his eagerness to work alongside President Obama.
Third, Bill Clinton delivered a pretty good endorsement of Obama at the Democratic National Convention. As a former Commander-in-Chief, although not well-liked in all quarters, his affirmation of Obama's readiness to lead carries great weight with most Democratic and many Independent voters. A former C-in-C's opinion in favor of essentially outweighs a fellow senator's opinion against.
And most importantly, Obama looked pretty damn presidential in Denver during his acceptance speech. 38 million viewers saw this, and, unless they are die-hard Republicans, could not help but be impressed. Trying to "unconvince" these 38 million viewers that what they saw with their own eyes wasn't real was a losing battle.
McCain's only move left open was to go after the "change" banner by adding a reformer and true Washington outsider to the ticket in an effort to reclaim his "maverick" label. It certainly helps that she's a woman--I believe that this became a non-negotiable requirement in his mind. With Palin, McCain also both shored up his conservative base with a pro-life, pro-gun running mate and sought to distance himself from the millstone around his neck known as "W." I believe that the decision to pivot and go after the change mantle instead of hammering away with "lack of experience" was initiated prior to the early days of the Democratic National Convention and validated by Obama's masterful speech Thursday night.
Adding a woman was a great move--and, incidentally, one that I predicted a few hours prior to his announcement of Palin. But who in their right mind would have foreseen that specific pick?
The big problem for McCain is that, after deciding to pivot so sharply, he and his staff ran out of time and did not examine Palin very thoroughly (apparently, hardly at all.). McCain barely knows who she is. My gut tells me that he selected her--someone so grossly unqualified for the VP slot--because he was gambling that she had a very slim record that was devoid of serious negatives and, more importantly, because she was one of the only women who would take the job!
McCain's campaign is in trouble. Facing a fairly united and highly-energized Democratic Party, he needed to really shake things up, and selecting a woman was a bold move. It would have been a bolder move had he found a credible woman to place on his ticket, but my guess is that none of the qualified women wanted to join what they saw as a losing ticket.
In this election, there is very little potential downside for Palin. She is not known outside Alaska. Her beauty pageant ego would eventually like to be worshiped in the lower 48, preferably at the national level. As a first-term governor in the middle of her first term, winning the White House this year is not essential. She can relish the national exposure for two months, lose, and then return to a hero's welcome in Alaska for having "fought the good fight" and putting Alaska in the public eye. And as long as her skeletons stay buried, she has a chance of remaining one of America's media darlings with a chance to return to prominence as a Senator or even as a future presidential candidate in 8 years.
We'll see how it all plays out, but the more that I have looked into Palin, the more negatives that surface. She has had a strong outpouring of support from single-issue voters (pro-life, pro-gun, women who want to vote for a woman regardless of the cost to the country.). Thinking individuals will see a somewhat intelligent and opportunistic but uninformed politician who is in no way ready to lead at the national level. They will see a complete lack of experience--and see that the lack of experience charge now belongs to Obama campaign to use.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
OK conspiracy theorists, here we go again. . .
The internet rumor mill has spawned a very interesting theory about Gov. Palin's fifth child, Trig Paxson Van Palin, who was born with Down Syndrome on 18 April 2008. The gist of the rumor is that the mother of the child is not Gov. Sarah Palin, but rather her daughter, Bristol. The case for Bristol's motherhood, while circumstantial, is fairly compelling. When added together, several of the "facts" and conjectures are completely inconsistent with Sarah's motherhood, but completely consistent with Bristol's motherhood.
Paraphrase of Gov. Palin's version: she became pregnant, but decided to tell no one, not even her closest friends and advisers, until the seventh month of her pregnancy, at which time she felt that she was finally beginning to show. On 17 April 2008, in the eighth month of her pregnancy, she began leaking amniotic fluid in the morning while she was attending a governor's conference on energy in Dallas, TX. After a phone consultation with her physician in Alaska, she stayed to deliver the keynote address, and then left for the airport where she boarded an Alaskan Airways flight. She did not inform the airline that she was pregnant or that her water had broken before boarding the flight, because she was not legally required to do so. During the 8 hours in the air (not including a stopover in Seattle), she did not inform the flight crew of her pregnancy because she felt that she was not showing and did not want to make a fuss. Arriving in Anchorage, Alaska, she and her husband continued on an additional 45 minutes to get to her home town of Wasilla, where she delivered the baby.
There was almost instant skepticism of this story up in Alaska; it was reported on at www.redditt.com over 4 months ago.
Here are some "facts" that do not seem to jive with Gov. Palin's sequence of events.
Everyone was "shocked and awed" by her pregnancy announcement. Her staff had not even been informed of her pregnancy, which is very surprising on two points. First, a woman in her last trimester of pregnancy needs to look after her unborn child, and a caring mother would have made the announcement--at least privately to her staff--so that they could help watch her schedule for events that might be damaging to her pregnancy. Most physicians would recommend a dramatic reduction in air travel, for example, which could effect her mobility around the state and impact her schedule and the performance of official duties. Second, if she was at elevated risk to be incapacitated for any period of time, the Lieutenant Governor should have been informed, as well as the State Adjutant General. This is a matter of competent leadership.
An article from the Anchorage Daily News on 6 March 2008 (less than a month and a half before she allegedly gave birth) reveals that there was widespread surprise to her pregnancy announcement: http://www.adn.com/front/story/336402.html She simply did not look or act pregnant, and the announcement that she was 7 months pregnant was generally met with disbelief.
Other anecdotal evidence can be found on the web that she was clearly not behaving as a pregnant woman in terms of limiting her activities or showing her pregnancy through her fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth months. She is in many photographs where she does not appear to be pregnant; many others are inconclusive. See the image from the National Governor's Association Conference on 25 February 2008, for example, at: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca9501010a0/?vgnextoid=3ef7315eff9e7110VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=5f0f749a71302010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD
Skepticism about the details of the pregnancy, at least as they were related by Gov. Palin, began appearing almost immediately. If you read between the lines in this article in the Anchorage Daily News, the reporter was questioning her actions in flying back to Alaska, which would have been against the advice of most competent physicians, and includes some relevant comments from the flight crew: http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html
Had Gov. Palin really been pregnant (as a mother in her early 40's, carrying a special needs child that was about a month premature), and had leaked amniotic fluid, would not the rational course of action to protect the health of the child have been to have seen a doctor in Dallas, at least for a checkup to ensure that she and her unborn child could safely fly? I'm obviously not a mother, but to me this is completely inconsistent with what a mother would have done.
Boarding an 8-hour flight (longer actually, if you count the stopover in Seattle), without informing the airline or the air crew that you are pregnant and that your water had broke, is just plain reckless. What about consideration for the passengers on the flight, should the flight have to be diverted? But more importantly, did she really want to be in the position of giving birth to a premature, special needs baby 30,000 feet in the air? If she really was pregnant, what does that say about her judgment and parental fitness?
Upon arriving on the ground in Anchorage, where there are hospitals with facilities and trained staff to deal with premature births and special needs babies, Palin decides to bypass these hospitals in order to drive an additional 45 minutes to Wasilla, to a less-capable facility to give birth. Again, if she was really pregnant, why take the extra time, and why go to a hospital with lesser facilities? It is reported on the web that her doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, a family practitioner and a recognized expert in Child and Adult Sexual Abuse (not an OB/GYN) had affiliations with the hospitals in Anchorage, and could have met Palin at one of them, alleviating the need for the 45-minute car trip to Wasilla and allowing for better facilities, and other trained staff to be present.
In short, if Gov. Palin was in fact Trig's mother, she made several very questionable calls regarding his health.
Now, here's another piece of the puzzle. Then 16-year old Bristol Palin was reportedly out of school for between 5 and 8 months (reports vary) during this time, with an alleged case of mono. She was also reported to have gained weight, and bloggers are buzzing about a picture allegedly taken in December 2007 in which Bristol is beginning to show, but Gov. Palin most definitely is not. Too hard to make a definitive call from a photo.
Gov. Palin has a long history with Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, going back to Palin's days as the Mayor of Wasilla, AK. In 2002, Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson was named the Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians. She was assisted by a glowing reference from then-mayor Palin. However, their association did not end there. Below are excerpts from a press release:
May 8, 2007, Juneau, AK – Governor Sarah Palin today announced the appointment of 14 Alaskans to the Alaska Health Care Strategies Planning Council.
Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of Wasilla is a private practice family physician and the 2002 National Family Physician of the Year from the American Academy of Family Physicians. In 1999, Baldwin-Johnson co-founded and is the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, and since 2005 has served as a consultant and trainer on child abuse issues. Baldwin-Johnson graduated from the University of Washington School of Medicine where she participated in the WWAMI Medical School program.
For some reason, this press release has recently been removed from the web, but is available in cache at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:e0U6tvTkFHwJ:gov.state.ak.us/archive.php%3Fid%3D368%26type%3D1+%22Cathy+Baldwin-Johnson%22+palin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us
Just suppose, for an instant, that Gov. Palin is NOT the mother. Here is a "fictitious" or alternate version of events, which is much, much more consistent with the information above: Bristol Palin, a 16-year old high school student, becomes pregnant, but is ignorant of this fact or keeps it hidden from her family as long as she possibly can. When her pregnancy is revealed to her family, her mother goes into crisis management mode. An abortion is simply not an option for a pro-life Republican Governor's unmarried minor daughter. However, carrying the baby to term will highlight the failure of the Gov. Palin's promotion of abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. The decision is made to announce the mother's pregnancy, perhaps offsetting it with her daughter's actual pregnancy by a month or so to give the appearance of a premature birth. This also has the advantage of requiring less time for the charade to play out in public. Gov. Palin announces her "pregnancy" to a stunned statewide audience, and declares that she is showing, just a bit. The winter and early spring months in Alaska favor bulky clothing anyways, and who would really doubt her pregnancy claim? In April, the prospect of delivering the keynote address to the governor's conference on energy is just too juicy a plum to pass up. So, crossing their fingers, Sarah and Todd Palin head to Dallas, despite the fact that a pregnant woman in her eighth month would not normally be traveling on 8+ hour airplane flights. Early in the morning on the 17th, disaster strikes, as Bristol's water breaks, and the Governor realizes that she has to get back to Alaska as quickly as she can--but not before claiming that her water has broken--and not before seizing her moment in the spotlight to give her speech. Instead of visiting a Dallas-area doctor to check on the baby before flying, which a concerned mother would do, she boards the flight to Alaska. She does not see a doctor or inform the airlines or flight crew because there is no baby--and she cannot run the risk of someone actually examining her. On arrival in Alaska, she does not go to the better equipped and staffed Anchorage hospitals, or have Baldwin-Johnson meet her there, because, again, there is no baby. She drives to Wasilla, AK where her long-time friend and crony Baldwin-Johnson is ready to maintain the charade. Palin, the one-time mayor and current resident of Wasilla, is in a locality that she can control, and bring the drama to its conclusion, when her daughter Bristol delivers Trig away from all eyes.
Now, the events I have outlined above are purely "fiction," an academic exercise in "how" this could have been carried out, just barely touching on the "why." The scenario above entails quite a bit of risk on Gov. Palin's part, but there is the potential for a big pay-off (or at least the avoidance of a catastrophe) if she can pull it off. Here are some of the really big "whys" that would have prompted them to take the gamble:
First, as a pro-life, pro-abstinence Republican, her credibility would take a huge hit if her unmarried minor daughter gives birth. Palin may have been able to continue in Alaskan politics, but she would have no hope for national exposure in Republican circles.
Second, by her knowingly carrying a Down Syndrome baby to term while in the Governor's mansion, she has scored tremendous points with the pro-life crowd. Talk about street cred! She is now the poster woman for both the pro-life movement and for working mothers.
Third, there was probably some level of concern for Bristol's well-being, and possibly some small amount for her reputation as well. Politically, this gave the Governor a fall-back plan if her ruse was discovered--she was just a devoted mother covering up for her daughter. Of course, she would be finished on the national stage, but probably could have continued on in Alaska as the darling of the motherhood crowd who may even view her deceit as the commendable defense of her child.
Fourth, after working out the timing (winter/spring months) they realized that they could probably get away with it, if they were audacious enough.
Fifth, due to their connections and loyalties in small-town Wasilla, the plan had a reasonable chance of success. Why would Dr. Baldwin-Johnson be a willing participant? Probably for several reasons, among them that she was most likely Bristol's doctor for a long time and would have a genuine desire to take care of her if she could, and her treatment of her would be covered by confidentiality practices. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson, as the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, would have a natural inclination to protect Bristol, especially if the pregnancy was the result of abuse or a sexual assault.
So . . . where does this all lead? Only time will tell. Not surprisingly, reaction to the idea is sharply divided along partisan lines. An interesting wrinkle is that the liberal/Democratic base is divided as well, with some convinced that this story is planted in an effort to trick the liberal media into launching an utterly condemnable attack on Gov. Palin.
I doubt that the McCain camp will even publicly acknowledge the story and so will take no steps to debunk it. It is way too red-hot for the Obama camp to touch, even through surrogates, unless portions of it can be independently verified. In a democracy, it would be wonderful if this story could be investigated thoroughly and either be laid to rest as a baseless rumor or, if true, have its rightful impact on the career of an unsuitable VP candidate who clearly was not vetted by the McCain camp.
Here's one of the underlying ironies: this story is most likely too hot to touch by the MSM because of its potential implications. However, even if portions of it are true--as stipulated by Gov. Palin herself--it raises some very serious and legitimate questions about her judgment. If she was indeed with child, do we really want to put a woman, in her early 40's, who would undertake two 8+ hour flights while 8 months pregnant with a special needs child--the second flight taking place after she had been leaking amniotic fluid for several hours and without having consulting a doctor for a hands-on medical exam--in the White House?
Paraphrase of Gov. Palin's version: she became pregnant, but decided to tell no one, not even her closest friends and advisers, until the seventh month of her pregnancy, at which time she felt that she was finally beginning to show. On 17 April 2008, in the eighth month of her pregnancy, she began leaking amniotic fluid in the morning while she was attending a governor's conference on energy in Dallas, TX. After a phone consultation with her physician in Alaska, she stayed to deliver the keynote address, and then left for the airport where she boarded an Alaskan Airways flight. She did not inform the airline that she was pregnant or that her water had broken before boarding the flight, because she was not legally required to do so. During the 8 hours in the air (not including a stopover in Seattle), she did not inform the flight crew of her pregnancy because she felt that she was not showing and did not want to make a fuss. Arriving in Anchorage, Alaska, she and her husband continued on an additional 45 minutes to get to her home town of Wasilla, where she delivered the baby.
There was almost instant skepticism of this story up in Alaska; it was reported on at www.redditt.com over 4 months ago.
Here are some "facts" that do not seem to jive with Gov. Palin's sequence of events.
Everyone was "shocked and awed" by her pregnancy announcement. Her staff had not even been informed of her pregnancy, which is very surprising on two points. First, a woman in her last trimester of pregnancy needs to look after her unborn child, and a caring mother would have made the announcement--at least privately to her staff--so that they could help watch her schedule for events that might be damaging to her pregnancy. Most physicians would recommend a dramatic reduction in air travel, for example, which could effect her mobility around the state and impact her schedule and the performance of official duties. Second, if she was at elevated risk to be incapacitated for any period of time, the Lieutenant Governor should have been informed, as well as the State Adjutant General. This is a matter of competent leadership.
An article from the Anchorage Daily News on 6 March 2008 (less than a month and a half before she allegedly gave birth) reveals that there was widespread surprise to her pregnancy announcement: http://www.adn.com/front/story/336402.html She simply did not look or act pregnant, and the announcement that she was 7 months pregnant was generally met with disbelief.
Other anecdotal evidence can be found on the web that she was clearly not behaving as a pregnant woman in terms of limiting her activities or showing her pregnancy through her fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth months. She is in many photographs where she does not appear to be pregnant; many others are inconclusive. See the image from the National Governor's Association Conference on 25 February 2008, for example, at: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca9501010a0/?vgnextoid=3ef7315eff9e7110VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=5f0f749a71302010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD
Skepticism about the details of the pregnancy, at least as they were related by Gov. Palin, began appearing almost immediately. If you read between the lines in this article in the Anchorage Daily News, the reporter was questioning her actions in flying back to Alaska, which would have been against the advice of most competent physicians, and includes some relevant comments from the flight crew: http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html
Had Gov. Palin really been pregnant (as a mother in her early 40's, carrying a special needs child that was about a month premature), and had leaked amniotic fluid, would not the rational course of action to protect the health of the child have been to have seen a doctor in Dallas, at least for a checkup to ensure that she and her unborn child could safely fly? I'm obviously not a mother, but to me this is completely inconsistent with what a mother would have done.
Boarding an 8-hour flight (longer actually, if you count the stopover in Seattle), without informing the airline or the air crew that you are pregnant and that your water had broke, is just plain reckless. What about consideration for the passengers on the flight, should the flight have to be diverted? But more importantly, did she really want to be in the position of giving birth to a premature, special needs baby 30,000 feet in the air? If she really was pregnant, what does that say about her judgment and parental fitness?
Upon arriving on the ground in Anchorage, where there are hospitals with facilities and trained staff to deal with premature births and special needs babies, Palin decides to bypass these hospitals in order to drive an additional 45 minutes to Wasilla, to a less-capable facility to give birth. Again, if she was really pregnant, why take the extra time, and why go to a hospital with lesser facilities? It is reported on the web that her doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, a family practitioner and a recognized expert in Child and Adult Sexual Abuse (not an OB/GYN) had affiliations with the hospitals in Anchorage, and could have met Palin at one of them, alleviating the need for the 45-minute car trip to Wasilla and allowing for better facilities, and other trained staff to be present.
In short, if Gov. Palin was in fact Trig's mother, she made several very questionable calls regarding his health.
Now, here's another piece of the puzzle. Then 16-year old Bristol Palin was reportedly out of school for between 5 and 8 months (reports vary) during this time, with an alleged case of mono. She was also reported to have gained weight, and bloggers are buzzing about a picture allegedly taken in December 2007 in which Bristol is beginning to show, but Gov. Palin most definitely is not. Too hard to make a definitive call from a photo.
Gov. Palin has a long history with Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, going back to Palin's days as the Mayor of Wasilla, AK. In 2002, Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson was named the Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians. She was assisted by a glowing reference from then-mayor Palin. However, their association did not end there. Below are excerpts from a press release:
May 8, 2007, Juneau, AK – Governor Sarah Palin today announced the appointment of 14 Alaskans to the Alaska Health Care Strategies Planning Council.
Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of Wasilla is a private practice family physician and the 2002 National Family Physician of the Year from the American Academy of Family Physicians. In 1999, Baldwin-Johnson co-founded and is the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, and since 2005 has served as a consultant and trainer on child abuse issues. Baldwin-Johnson graduated from the University of Washington School of Medicine where she participated in the WWAMI Medical School program.
For some reason, this press release has recently been removed from the web, but is available in cache at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:e0U6tvTkFHwJ:gov.state.ak.us/archive.php%3Fid%3D368%26type%3D1+%22Cathy+Baldwin-Johnson%22+palin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us
Just suppose, for an instant, that Gov. Palin is NOT the mother. Here is a "fictitious" or alternate version of events, which is much, much more consistent with the information above: Bristol Palin, a 16-year old high school student, becomes pregnant, but is ignorant of this fact or keeps it hidden from her family as long as she possibly can. When her pregnancy is revealed to her family, her mother goes into crisis management mode. An abortion is simply not an option for a pro-life Republican Governor's unmarried minor daughter. However, carrying the baby to term will highlight the failure of the Gov. Palin's promotion of abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. The decision is made to announce the mother's pregnancy, perhaps offsetting it with her daughter's actual pregnancy by a month or so to give the appearance of a premature birth. This also has the advantage of requiring less time for the charade to play out in public. Gov. Palin announces her "pregnancy" to a stunned statewide audience, and declares that she is showing, just a bit. The winter and early spring months in Alaska favor bulky clothing anyways, and who would really doubt her pregnancy claim? In April, the prospect of delivering the keynote address to the governor's conference on energy is just too juicy a plum to pass up. So, crossing their fingers, Sarah and Todd Palin head to Dallas, despite the fact that a pregnant woman in her eighth month would not normally be traveling on 8+ hour airplane flights. Early in the morning on the 17th, disaster strikes, as Bristol's water breaks, and the Governor realizes that she has to get back to Alaska as quickly as she can--but not before claiming that her water has broken--and not before seizing her moment in the spotlight to give her speech. Instead of visiting a Dallas-area doctor to check on the baby before flying, which a concerned mother would do, she boards the flight to Alaska. She does not see a doctor or inform the airlines or flight crew because there is no baby--and she cannot run the risk of someone actually examining her. On arrival in Alaska, she does not go to the better equipped and staffed Anchorage hospitals, or have Baldwin-Johnson meet her there, because, again, there is no baby. She drives to Wasilla, AK where her long-time friend and crony Baldwin-Johnson is ready to maintain the charade. Palin, the one-time mayor and current resident of Wasilla, is in a locality that she can control, and bring the drama to its conclusion, when her daughter Bristol delivers Trig away from all eyes.
Now, the events I have outlined above are purely "fiction," an academic exercise in "how" this could have been carried out, just barely touching on the "why." The scenario above entails quite a bit of risk on Gov. Palin's part, but there is the potential for a big pay-off (or at least the avoidance of a catastrophe) if she can pull it off. Here are some of the really big "whys" that would have prompted them to take the gamble:
First, as a pro-life, pro-abstinence Republican, her credibility would take a huge hit if her unmarried minor daughter gives birth. Palin may have been able to continue in Alaskan politics, but she would have no hope for national exposure in Republican circles.
Second, by her knowingly carrying a Down Syndrome baby to term while in the Governor's mansion, she has scored tremendous points with the pro-life crowd. Talk about street cred! She is now the poster woman for both the pro-life movement and for working mothers.
Third, there was probably some level of concern for Bristol's well-being, and possibly some small amount for her reputation as well. Politically, this gave the Governor a fall-back plan if her ruse was discovered--she was just a devoted mother covering up for her daughter. Of course, she would be finished on the national stage, but probably could have continued on in Alaska as the darling of the motherhood crowd who may even view her deceit as the commendable defense of her child.
Fourth, after working out the timing (winter/spring months) they realized that they could probably get away with it, if they were audacious enough.
Fifth, due to their connections and loyalties in small-town Wasilla, the plan had a reasonable chance of success. Why would Dr. Baldwin-Johnson be a willing participant? Probably for several reasons, among them that she was most likely Bristol's doctor for a long time and would have a genuine desire to take care of her if she could, and her treatment of her would be covered by confidentiality practices. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson, as the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, would have a natural inclination to protect Bristol, especially if the pregnancy was the result of abuse or a sexual assault.
So . . . where does this all lead? Only time will tell. Not surprisingly, reaction to the idea is sharply divided along partisan lines. An interesting wrinkle is that the liberal/Democratic base is divided as well, with some convinced that this story is planted in an effort to trick the liberal media into launching an utterly condemnable attack on Gov. Palin.
I doubt that the McCain camp will even publicly acknowledge the story and so will take no steps to debunk it. It is way too red-hot for the Obama camp to touch, even through surrogates, unless portions of it can be independently verified. In a democracy, it would be wonderful if this story could be investigated thoroughly and either be laid to rest as a baseless rumor or, if true, have its rightful impact on the career of an unsuitable VP candidate who clearly was not vetted by the McCain camp.
Here's one of the underlying ironies: this story is most likely too hot to touch by the MSM because of its potential implications. However, even if portions of it are true--as stipulated by Gov. Palin herself--it raises some very serious and legitimate questions about her judgment. If she was indeed with child, do we really want to put a woman, in her early 40's, who would undertake two 8+ hour flights while 8 months pregnant with a special needs child--the second flight taking place after she had been leaking amniotic fluid for several hours and without having consulting a doctor for a hands-on medical exam--in the White House?
A Bold Prediction
OK, I'm really going to go out on a limb here. Here's one of the boldest predictions of the political campaign to date: Gov. Sarah Palin, citing "personal and family reasons," will remove herself from the Vice Presidential slot on the McCain ticket.
WOW! It will be a shocker, but its the only way forward for the McCain camp. My speculation is that they will use the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to push back some or all of the convention while they scramble to find a suitable VP pick.
Here's why this needs to happen for the McCain camp: Palin is a "dirty bomb" waiting to explode and take McCain down with her. She was not fully vetted by the McCain camp--this much is clear from comments from within the Republican Party. A basic background check would have revealed to them that there are actually several time bombs waiting to go off that collectively will completely shatter her reputation and keep the focus of the news coverage of the McCain/Palin ticket on her negatives rather than on his message.
First, let me state the obvious flaws that she presents as a candidate, which provide the context in which the subsequent issues will be examined by the press and by the public. She has no national experience, no foreign policy experience, and no applicable executive experience. As the year-and-a-half-old Governor of Alaska, she has not had to wrestle with the issues that confront virtually all other states. Oil revenues provide a huge infusion of capital that means that Alaska always has a budget surplus to work with, instead of a shrinking pool of funds stretched to the breaking point, like many of the lower 48 states do. She has never really had to make tough budgetary recommendations. Alaska does not face many of the issues that are so difficult in the rest of the country--it is a unique area with unique challenges.
Basically, Palin brings nothing to the table, except for her gender, her far-right conservative views, her reputation as a "maverick," and her ethics. While those may be strong positives, once her proclaimed basic values are exposed as false, she has nothing left to stand on, except her gender and her far-right appeal, and casts a deep shadow of ethical hypocrisy on the McCain claim that she is a reformer who can help him clean up Washington. A candidate with a deeper record to fall back on could sustain a few hits to his/her record, but to one without any substance, such as Palin, a few hits will be all that is needed to sink her credibility and throw the harshest criticism onto McCain for making such a reckless choice for the nation's second highest office.
I don't think that anyone--even the most brain-dead evangelical--can say with a straight face that selecting a woman is not a transparent ploy to pander to disaffected female voters. Her compelling personal story as a self-described "hockey mom," loving wife of a snowmobile racer, and mother of five is interesting on the surface and novel in a presidential race. However, there are rumblings of a deeper story and a darker secret within the Palin family: Trig Palin, Gov. Palin's "fifth child," may actually be her daughter Bristol's baby (a topic for another post.). Once (if) this story breaks in the MSM, Palin is (or should be) finished. While some may support a mother's decision to cover for her daughter, this is clearly not suitable behavior for a State Governor or a Vice Presidential candidate. The coverup involved repeatedly lying, developing an elaborate and false delivery story, and probably included falsifying the child's birth certificate. All of this conduct is unsuitable for even a politician (except in the Bush administration) and speaks directly to her lack of integrity and willingness to deceive.
In her acceptance speech, Palin claimed to have said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." A basic check of the record in the Alaskan papers has her very firmly in favor of the bridge before the national furor over earmarks started. The State of Alaska actually canceled the bridge plans, but kept the funds. Ironically, they are currently using a portion of those funds to construct feeder roads to the non-existent bridge, which cuts directly against her claim of fiscal responsibility and combating wasteful spending. But, more importantly, Gov. Palin's objections to the bridge had nothing to do with wasteful government spending or reform politics--she regretted that Congress did not come up with the additional funds required to complete the project. From her press release, dated 21 September 2007:
“Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the
answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about
$329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little
interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,”
Governor Palin added.
The MSM needs to examine her record of public statements and interview some of the residents of Ketchikan, AK, where she aggressively advocated for the bridge during her gubernatorial campaign, for their opinion of the Governor and her abrupt reversal of position. At best, this is a clear flip-flop, done for personal political gain. At worst, this speaks directly to her lack of ethics in her acceptance speech. Either way, it definitely tarnishes her reformer credentials, removes one of the only positive claims that she can make about herself, and calls into question her integrity, yet again.
Then there is "Troopergate." Gov. Palin is currently being investigated for abusing her position to retaliate against Walter Monegan for failing to fire her former brother-in-law. An ethics crusader being investigated for ethical violations. Nothing novel there, but this story will continue to receive attention throughout several news cycles leading up to the election. Based on what has been reported, Palin, her family and her staff certainly acted inappropriately--and did so repeatedly. Even if the investigation concludes that she did not do anything illegal, she certainly created an "appearance of impropriety" and acted in a manner unbecoming of a Vice Presidential candidate.
I'm sure that other revelations will continue to surface. The sum total of them will show that Gov. Palin is a deeply flawed candidate and an extremely irresponsible selection for the McCain ticket. Negative news stories about Palin will plague the McCain camp until they cut her loose. Of course, McCain can't simply say "I've made a mistake" when it comes to the most important decision he has made so far as his party's presumptive nominee, so the only other option is for Gov. Palin to cite "personal and family reasons." And she does have her daughter's baby with Down Syndrome to care for back home in Alaska.
WOW! It will be a shocker, but its the only way forward for the McCain camp. My speculation is that they will use the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to push back some or all of the convention while they scramble to find a suitable VP pick.
Here's why this needs to happen for the McCain camp: Palin is a "dirty bomb" waiting to explode and take McCain down with her. She was not fully vetted by the McCain camp--this much is clear from comments from within the Republican Party. A basic background check would have revealed to them that there are actually several time bombs waiting to go off that collectively will completely shatter her reputation and keep the focus of the news coverage of the McCain/Palin ticket on her negatives rather than on his message.
First, let me state the obvious flaws that she presents as a candidate, which provide the context in which the subsequent issues will be examined by the press and by the public. She has no national experience, no foreign policy experience, and no applicable executive experience. As the year-and-a-half-old Governor of Alaska, she has not had to wrestle with the issues that confront virtually all other states. Oil revenues provide a huge infusion of capital that means that Alaska always has a budget surplus to work with, instead of a shrinking pool of funds stretched to the breaking point, like many of the lower 48 states do. She has never really had to make tough budgetary recommendations. Alaska does not face many of the issues that are so difficult in the rest of the country--it is a unique area with unique challenges.
Basically, Palin brings nothing to the table, except for her gender, her far-right conservative views, her reputation as a "maverick," and her ethics. While those may be strong positives, once her proclaimed basic values are exposed as false, she has nothing left to stand on, except her gender and her far-right appeal, and casts a deep shadow of ethical hypocrisy on the McCain claim that she is a reformer who can help him clean up Washington. A candidate with a deeper record to fall back on could sustain a few hits to his/her record, but to one without any substance, such as Palin, a few hits will be all that is needed to sink her credibility and throw the harshest criticism onto McCain for making such a reckless choice for the nation's second highest office.
I don't think that anyone--even the most brain-dead evangelical--can say with a straight face that selecting a woman is not a transparent ploy to pander to disaffected female voters. Her compelling personal story as a self-described "hockey mom," loving wife of a snowmobile racer, and mother of five is interesting on the surface and novel in a presidential race. However, there are rumblings of a deeper story and a darker secret within the Palin family: Trig Palin, Gov. Palin's "fifth child," may actually be her daughter Bristol's baby (a topic for another post.). Once (if) this story breaks in the MSM, Palin is (or should be) finished. While some may support a mother's decision to cover for her daughter, this is clearly not suitable behavior for a State Governor or a Vice Presidential candidate. The coverup involved repeatedly lying, developing an elaborate and false delivery story, and probably included falsifying the child's birth certificate. All of this conduct is unsuitable for even a politician (except in the Bush administration) and speaks directly to her lack of integrity and willingness to deceive.
In her acceptance speech, Palin claimed to have said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." A basic check of the record in the Alaskan papers has her very firmly in favor of the bridge before the national furor over earmarks started. The State of Alaska actually canceled the bridge plans, but kept the funds. Ironically, they are currently using a portion of those funds to construct feeder roads to the non-existent bridge, which cuts directly against her claim of fiscal responsibility and combating wasteful spending. But, more importantly, Gov. Palin's objections to the bridge had nothing to do with wasteful government spending or reform politics--she regretted that Congress did not come up with the additional funds required to complete the project. From her press release, dated 21 September 2007:
“Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the
answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about
$329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little
interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,”
Governor Palin added.
The MSM needs to examine her record of public statements and interview some of the residents of Ketchikan, AK, where she aggressively advocated for the bridge during her gubernatorial campaign, for their opinion of the Governor and her abrupt reversal of position. At best, this is a clear flip-flop, done for personal political gain. At worst, this speaks directly to her lack of ethics in her acceptance speech. Either way, it definitely tarnishes her reformer credentials, removes one of the only positive claims that she can make about herself, and calls into question her integrity, yet again.
Then there is "Troopergate." Gov. Palin is currently being investigated for abusing her position to retaliate against Walter Monegan for failing to fire her former brother-in-law. An ethics crusader being investigated for ethical violations. Nothing novel there, but this story will continue to receive attention throughout several news cycles leading up to the election. Based on what has been reported, Palin, her family and her staff certainly acted inappropriately--and did so repeatedly. Even if the investigation concludes that she did not do anything illegal, she certainly created an "appearance of impropriety" and acted in a manner unbecoming of a Vice Presidential candidate.
I'm sure that other revelations will continue to surface. The sum total of them will show that Gov. Palin is a deeply flawed candidate and an extremely irresponsible selection for the McCain ticket. Negative news stories about Palin will plague the McCain camp until they cut her loose. Of course, McCain can't simply say "I've made a mistake" when it comes to the most important decision he has made so far as his party's presumptive nominee, so the only other option is for Gov. Palin to cite "personal and family reasons." And she does have her daughter's baby with Down Syndrome to care for back home in Alaska.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Commander-in-Chief of what, exactly?
One of the McCain campaigns talking points is that Gov. Palin has vital experience as the Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard. While this is technically true, let me describe exactly what this means for those unfamiliar with the National Guard system.
State Governors are the titular, elected civilian heads of their respective State Guard. However, few have much idea of what their troops do on a daily basis (or at their monthly drills.). I think that it would even be a fair assessment to say that the role of many State Governors is more or less ceremonial.
The military training decisions and preparations are made by the State Adjutant General, who is a uniformed (and usually highly experienced) officer, frequently with two star (Major General) or three star (Lieutenant General) rank.
The role of the Governor is typically limited to making decisions as to if and when the troops are called up to deal with statewide emergencies, such as natural disasters. Should National Guard troops be utilized in any type of combat role--or used in any capacity on foreign soil--they are under Federal control and the State Governor has no role in their strategic deployment or tactical operations.
So, in the case of Alaska, Gov. Palin is not leading combat troops that are manning the border to prevent an invasion from Canada. When her state troops are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan,
her role is largely limited to traveling to deployment areas to shake hands with the troops and pose for photo ops.
Putting this forth as a qualification in foreign policy or international relations is an embarrassingly transparent claim to those who know how much (or actually how little) the State Governors have to do with their guard units. And, as one of the least populous states, Alaska probably has one of the smaller State Guards.
State Governors are the titular, elected civilian heads of their respective State Guard. However, few have much idea of what their troops do on a daily basis (or at their monthly drills.). I think that it would even be a fair assessment to say that the role of many State Governors is more or less ceremonial.
The military training decisions and preparations are made by the State Adjutant General, who is a uniformed (and usually highly experienced) officer, frequently with two star (Major General) or three star (Lieutenant General) rank.
The role of the Governor is typically limited to making decisions as to if and when the troops are called up to deal with statewide emergencies, such as natural disasters. Should National Guard troops be utilized in any type of combat role--or used in any capacity on foreign soil--they are under Federal control and the State Governor has no role in their strategic deployment or tactical operations.
So, in the case of Alaska, Gov. Palin is not leading combat troops that are manning the border to prevent an invasion from Canada. When her state troops are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan,
her role is largely limited to traveling to deployment areas to shake hands with the troops and pose for photo ops.
Putting this forth as a qualification in foreign policy or international relations is an embarrassingly transparent claim to those who know how much (or actually how little) the State Governors have to do with their guard units. And, as one of the least populous states, Alaska probably has one of the smaller State Guards.
OK, enough is ENOUGH!
I took a long break from blogging. Several reasons for this, but the main one is that I felt pretty good about the delegate count math behind the Obama vs. Clinton primary slugfest. Most of my ideas on the contest were reflected in other blogs and websites.
The sharp stick that has poked me and awakened my ire is Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate. As a veteran, I had always had a deep respect for Sen. McCain, and I would have voted for him, had Sen. Clinton been the Democratic Party's nominee. However, the selection of a running mate so grossly unqualified, has really crossed the line.
McCain cannot claim to have America's interests first and foremost in his heart and mind when he has selected such an inexperienced politician to serve in an office that's a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Even more damming is the fact that McCain's staff has admitted that McCain himself has had very little contact with Palin. How can he possibly advocate that she has the credentials to step into the Presidency should he be incapacitated? Where is the record of service that he saw that put his mind at rest with her credentials? How can McCain say with a straight face that they will make a good governing team when he doesn't know her very well?
At her introduction today, she looked like a bubbly McCain cheerleader rather than a VP pick. The age difference was so strong that if you tuned in without knowing who she was, it would not have been surprising for her to have introduced her "dad" John McCain to the crowd.
Palin had very little to say about herself (her resume is razor thin) and there is nothing in her background to suggest that she could be even remotely effective at the national level. McCain's selection of her as a running mate puts his judgment--and, yes, even his patriotism--in question. To me, as a veteran of the Armed Forces, who was subject to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, I do view this as a failing in McCain's patriotism. I am disgusted with Sen. McCain for making such a blatantly pandering choice that clearly goes against everything he has stood for as a Navy pilot and veteran.
The sharp stick that has poked me and awakened my ire is Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate. As a veteran, I had always had a deep respect for Sen. McCain, and I would have voted for him, had Sen. Clinton been the Democratic Party's nominee. However, the selection of a running mate so grossly unqualified, has really crossed the line.
McCain cannot claim to have America's interests first and foremost in his heart and mind when he has selected such an inexperienced politician to serve in an office that's a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Even more damming is the fact that McCain's staff has admitted that McCain himself has had very little contact with Palin. How can he possibly advocate that she has the credentials to step into the Presidency should he be incapacitated? Where is the record of service that he saw that put his mind at rest with her credentials? How can McCain say with a straight face that they will make a good governing team when he doesn't know her very well?
At her introduction today, she looked like a bubbly McCain cheerleader rather than a VP pick. The age difference was so strong that if you tuned in without knowing who she was, it would not have been surprising for her to have introduced her "dad" John McCain to the crowd.
Palin had very little to say about herself (her resume is razor thin) and there is nothing in her background to suggest that she could be even remotely effective at the national level. McCain's selection of her as a running mate puts his judgment--and, yes, even his patriotism--in question. To me, as a veteran of the Armed Forces, who was subject to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, I do view this as a failing in McCain's patriotism. I am disgusted with Sen. McCain for making such a blatantly pandering choice that clearly goes against everything he has stood for as a Navy pilot and veteran.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)