A Bold Prediction

OK, I'm really going to go out on a limb here. Here's one of the boldest predictions of the political campaign to date: Gov. Sarah Palin, citing "personal and family reasons," will remove herself from the Vice Presidential slot on the McCain ticket.

WOW! It will be a shocker, but its the only way forward for the McCain camp. My speculation is that they will use the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to push back some or all of the convention while they scramble to find a suitable VP pick.

Here's why this needs to happen for the McCain camp: Palin is a "dirty bomb" waiting to explode and take McCain down with her. She was not fully vetted by the McCain camp--this much is clear from comments from within the Republican Party. A basic background check would have revealed to them that there are actually several time bombs waiting to go off that collectively will completely shatter her reputation and keep the focus of the news coverage of the McCain/Palin ticket on her negatives rather than on his message.

First, let me state the obvious flaws that she presents as a candidate, which provide the context in which the subsequent issues will be examined by the press and by the public. She has no national experience, no foreign policy experience, and no applicable executive experience. As the year-and-a-half-old Governor of Alaska, she has not had to wrestle with the issues that confront virtually all other states. Oil revenues provide a huge infusion of capital that means that Alaska always has a budget surplus to work with, instead of a shrinking pool of funds stretched to the breaking point, like many of the lower 48 states do. She has never really had to make tough budgetary recommendations. Alaska does not face many of the issues that are so difficult in the rest of the country--it is a unique area with unique challenges.

Basically, Palin brings nothing to the table, except for her gender, her far-right conservative views, her reputation as a "maverick," and her ethics. While those may be strong positives, once her proclaimed basic values are exposed as false, she has nothing left to stand on, except her gender and her far-right appeal, and casts a deep shadow of ethical hypocrisy on the McCain claim that she is a reformer who can help him clean up Washington. A candidate with a deeper record to fall back on could sustain a few hits to his/her record, but to one without any substance, such as Palin, a few hits will be all that is needed to sink her credibility and throw the harshest criticism onto McCain for making such a reckless choice for the nation's second highest office.

I don't think that anyone--even the most brain-dead evangelical--can say with a straight face that selecting a woman is not a transparent ploy to pander to disaffected female voters. Her compelling personal story as a self-described "hockey mom," loving wife of a snowmobile racer, and mother of five is interesting on the surface and novel in a presidential race. However, there are rumblings of a deeper story and a darker secret within the Palin family: Trig Palin, Gov. Palin's "fifth child," may actually be her daughter Bristol's baby (a topic for another post.). Once (if) this story breaks in the MSM, Palin is (or should be) finished. While some may support a mother's decision to cover for her daughter, this is clearly not suitable behavior for a State Governor or a Vice Presidential candidate. The coverup involved repeatedly lying, developing an elaborate and false delivery story, and probably included falsifying the child's birth certificate. All of this conduct is unsuitable for even a politician (except in the Bush administration) and speaks directly to her lack of integrity and willingness to deceive.

In her acceptance speech, Palin claimed to have said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." A basic check of the record in the Alaskan papers has her very firmly in favor of the bridge before the national furor over earmarks started. The State of Alaska actually canceled the bridge plans, but kept the funds. Ironically, they are currently using a portion of those funds to construct feeder roads to the non-existent bridge, which cuts directly against her claim of fiscal responsibility and combating wasteful spending. But, more importantly, Gov. Palin's objections to the bridge had nothing to do with wasteful government spending or reform politics--she regretted that Congress did not come up with the additional funds required to complete the project. From her press release, dated 21 September 2007:

“Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the
answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about
$329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little
interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,”
Governor Palin added.

The MSM needs to examine her record of public statements and interview some of the residents of Ketchikan, AK, where she aggressively advocated for the bridge during her gubernatorial campaign, for their opinion of the Governor and her abrupt reversal of position. At best, this is a clear flip-flop, done for personal political gain. At worst, this speaks directly to her lack of ethics in her acceptance speech. Either way, it definitely tarnishes her reformer credentials, removes one of the only positive claims that she can make about herself, and calls into question her integrity, yet again.

Then there is "Troopergate." Gov. Palin is currently being investigated for abusing her position to retaliate against Walter Monegan for failing to fire her former brother-in-law. An ethics crusader being investigated for ethical violations. Nothing novel there, but this story will continue to receive attention throughout several news cycles leading up to the election. Based on what has been reported, Palin, her family and her staff certainly acted inappropriately--and did so repeatedly. Even if the investigation concludes that she did not do anything illegal, she certainly created an "appearance of impropriety" and acted in a manner unbecoming of a Vice Presidential candidate.

I'm sure that other revelations will continue to surface. The sum total of them will show that Gov. Palin is a deeply flawed candidate and an extremely irresponsible selection for the McCain ticket. Negative news stories about Palin will plague the McCain camp until they cut her loose. Of course, McCain can't simply say "I've made a mistake" when it comes to the most important decision he has made so far as his party's presumptive nominee, so the only other option is for Gov. Palin to cite "personal and family reasons." And she does have her daughter's baby with Down Syndrome to care for back home in Alaska.