There has been a lot of buzz about Sarah Palin. Many view her as a "rising star" in the Republican Party. A "natural politician." The Democrats are running scared because she made such an excellent speech. And on and on.
She is on the national stage because of a sheer convergence of factors: divisions within the base of the Republican Party, widespread lack of enthusiasm for McCain, Hillary Clinton's historic run for the Democratic nomination, infighting within the leadership of the Republican Party, and the desperate need for a "game-changer" that prompted rash action instead of a deliberate and balanced running mate selection following a thorough vetting process. Essentially, she was handed a winning lottery ticket that someone else had paid for.
If Palin wants to stay on the national stage, other than as an RNC speaker to fire up the base every four years or the "go to gal" to rehash GOP talking points on abortion or drilling in ANWR, she has to deepen her knowledge on both domestic and international affairs. This will require some effort on her part, which will probably entail simply memorizing the GOP talking talks.
Palin's educational career (five colleges in six years) is less than inspiring. She has a marked disinterest in foreign policy. Her domestic policies as Governor of Alaska are regionally based, and cater to the oil companies and economic development at the expense of the environment. Her signature issue throughout her political career has been abortion--and it is an extreme stance--in no way a nuanced position that reflects the inherent divisiveness of the issue or has any room for tolerance of opposing viewpoints.
The Obama campaign has rightly picked up on all of this, and they, so far, have not been drawn into the train wreck that is her candidacy for the nation's second highest office. Aside from challenging the factual inaccuracies in her 3 speeches, to date, they have been courteous and polite, and will most likely continue to do so.
The right wing would most likely have you believe that this is because they are afraid of her. Hardly. They see her for the insecure blowhard that she is. Let her blather on and on with her negativity and cater to the right wing extremists. The more she talks, the less the center will listen, because, in the end, she has nothing to say about how she can positively impact our lives.
Ignore her. Bullies take such delight in taunting and mocking others because they feel the need to control and cause an emotional reaction in their victim. The Obama camp has so far been on point--ignore her, don't become the victim. Let her go farther and farther over the line in an attempt to get them to push back and engage her in a partisan shouting match. She will be exposed for the lightweight, hate-filled blowhard that she is. Her acceptance speech can indeed become a transcendent moment in American politics, but not in the way so passionately desired by the right. It can become a time to choose to ignore solutionless partisan hate speech and sarcasm and move the political dialog back to the issues. Ignore her.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Palin: One Club in the Bag
Gov. Palin's speech last night was widely hailed by the right wing as a "grand slam." Pundits have called it one of the greatest political speeches ever. Not hardly. This was a boilerplate attack speech with a few clever applause lines that cater only to the base. There was absolutely nothing uplifting, visionary or concrete offered up. It has not prompted any national dialog, except for water cooler comments about some her more snarky moments.
And, even if you did think that is was a great, game-changing speech--don't credit Sarah Palin. Credit speechwriter Matthew Scully. Palin had two days to rehearse her speech, which was displayed for her in (sometimes) phonetic fashion on a teleprompter. Wow! She can read AND field dress a moose!
Here's the problem for McCain/Palin: after getting high marks for a well-written, well-rehearsed attack speech, what's next? I would be surprised if she can deliver much more than what she did last night. Basically, in the long run, all she adds to the McCain campaign is an attack dog with lipstick. She's a one-trick pony. Or, if you'll indulge me in a golf metaphor (even though I kind of hate golf), she has one club in her golf bag.
A good campaigning (golfing) team has lots of clubs to use for all types of situations. You need drivers for the long game, irons to chip onto the green, the putter to finish the deal--and you also need a nasty wedge to hack your way out of sand traps that you're bogged down in. Sarah Palin is one helluva sand wedge, which McCain needed because he had been stuck in the sand trap and going nowhere for quite a while. But you can't use her as a driver (outlining long range policy) or as a putter (stating the fine points and nuances)--because all she can do is chop away and leave huge divots all over the course. I'm betting that once the campaign wears on, her one club will become very tiresome, very quickly. How many times will CNN air the same, stale attack lines that cater to the base? Once we've heard them more than twice, they really start to wear thin. The real news will be her gaffes and her interactions with the press--if the McCain camp ever decides to let that happen.
Her only other club is the compelling story behind her and her family. 5 kids with weird names. Neat! A son going to Iraq. Touching! A stud husband snow machine racer. Cool! Well, after we've all googled the "Iron Dog" race and tried to find moose meat at the local grocery store, what's next? The big problem with a bizarre and compelling personal narrative is that once the public knows your story, they need more details to keep them interested. Its like watching a reality TV show--what's going to happen next week? I have a hunch from some of the rumblings and whisperings from Alaska that there is real Jerry Springer show potential for this extended family. And although juicy details coming out week after week might make great television--they make a terrible campaign strategy. The McCain camp, if there is any sense left there at all, needs to keep this club as far away from her hands as they can.
Give her the sand wedge, point her in a safe direction, and hope that there are still a few voters willing to listen after the rest of us have long tuned out her hacking away.
And, even if you did think that is was a great, game-changing speech--don't credit Sarah Palin. Credit speechwriter Matthew Scully. Palin had two days to rehearse her speech, which was displayed for her in (sometimes) phonetic fashion on a teleprompter. Wow! She can read AND field dress a moose!
Here's the problem for McCain/Palin: after getting high marks for a well-written, well-rehearsed attack speech, what's next? I would be surprised if she can deliver much more than what she did last night. Basically, in the long run, all she adds to the McCain campaign is an attack dog with lipstick. She's a one-trick pony. Or, if you'll indulge me in a golf metaphor (even though I kind of hate golf), she has one club in her golf bag.
A good campaigning (golfing) team has lots of clubs to use for all types of situations. You need drivers for the long game, irons to chip onto the green, the putter to finish the deal--and you also need a nasty wedge to hack your way out of sand traps that you're bogged down in. Sarah Palin is one helluva sand wedge, which McCain needed because he had been stuck in the sand trap and going nowhere for quite a while. But you can't use her as a driver (outlining long range policy) or as a putter (stating the fine points and nuances)--because all she can do is chop away and leave huge divots all over the course. I'm betting that once the campaign wears on, her one club will become very tiresome, very quickly. How many times will CNN air the same, stale attack lines that cater to the base? Once we've heard them more than twice, they really start to wear thin. The real news will be her gaffes and her interactions with the press--if the McCain camp ever decides to let that happen.
Her only other club is the compelling story behind her and her family. 5 kids with weird names. Neat! A son going to Iraq. Touching! A stud husband snow machine racer. Cool! Well, after we've all googled the "Iron Dog" race and tried to find moose meat at the local grocery store, what's next? The big problem with a bizarre and compelling personal narrative is that once the public knows your story, they need more details to keep them interested. Its like watching a reality TV show--what's going to happen next week? I have a hunch from some of the rumblings and whisperings from Alaska that there is real Jerry Springer show potential for this extended family. And although juicy details coming out week after week might make great television--they make a terrible campaign strategy. The McCain camp, if there is any sense left there at all, needs to keep this club as far away from her hands as they can.
Give her the sand wedge, point her in a safe direction, and hope that there are still a few voters willing to listen after the rest of us have long tuned out her hacking away.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
"Country First" or "Campaign First?"
So the McCain camp has said that its vetting of Palin was thorough and that any further questions on its process are off limits. And, they demand, back off of Sarah Palin. The country loves her. All of the negativity surrounding her candidacy is apparently being manufactured by the hostile left-wing media.
Well, it comes out today that the National Enquirer prompted Palin's press statement about her daughter's pregnancy--it seems that their staff knew a lot more about what was going on up in Alaska than McCain's did--and there surely is a lot more to follow. How much of it will surprise McCain? Because this comes out on the heels of a series of emerging, embarrassing details about how woefully inadequate the vetting process was. Both McCain camp statements and anecdotal evidence show that there was no rigorous check into her background or her political record.
Reporters who have actually traveled up to Alaska have discovered that they are breaking new ground in many cases. They are the first ones talking to people who know Sarah Palin (the current mayor of Wasilla, AK, for example.). They are the first ones to sift through some of her official records and the newspapers that covered her years as mayor. And as they sift, they are finding some rewarding nuggets. There is a constant stream of Palin news--and none of it good.
Leaving aside the family issues, fake pregnancy rumors, troopergate, dairygate, etc., it seems that a serious problem for McCain (if the campaign ever does return to the issues) is that her "reformer" credentials are seriously tarnished. I was dumbfounded to hear her repeat her claim that she said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" again tonight in her speech. The record on this is quite clear--she enthusiastically supported the project before the Federal government failed to come up with additional funds for it, which prompted her sudden reversal. Read the press release she sent out. There is nothing "reformer" about it. To her it was strictly a funding issue. Under her as Governor, Alaska continues to receive the highest per capita amount of earmark spending. And this is nothing new--her political career has been all about the earmarks--and cozying up to indicted Sen. Ted Stevens when it suited her purposes. She was the first Wasilla mayor to be an earmark crusader--a crusader in favor of getting as much pork for her town as she possibly could. A search of earmarks that McCain published in his pork lists includes several items personally proposed by Palin herself while mayor of Wasilla. This is a pretty serious disconnect with McCain, and one that they probably had not fully explored.
Indeed, it appears that the McCain folks did not explore much, limiting their version of the vetting process to a search of public records available on the internet. That's not vetting--that's called googling. Of course, they also asked her some very specific, hard-hitting questions and trusted that she would be completely open and honest about herself. No problem there, I'm sure.
McCain's personal contact with her was--by his campaign's own account--admittedly very limited. Meeting her briefly at a conference and then having a single face-to-face meeting with her before declaring her to be his "soul-mate." Bush has famously claimed to have looked into Putin's eyes and to have gotten a sense of his soul. Maybe this is a special gift that Republicans have. Perhaps not--look at how well that relationship is turning out.
The rush to vet appears to be a wholly political decision, a last minute game-changer, trying to gain traction to stem a wholesale stampede to the Democratic Party. It was easy to confirm her most important quality to the McCain camp--she's clearly a woman. Her appeal to the base was pretty easy to determine as well, and apparently that's all that it took to seal the deal.
She is placed on the Republican ticket as a Vice Presidential candidate without knowing what her positions are on major issues (hint: on foreign policy, she has none, unless you count her statement that the war in Iraq is "a task that is from God."). Of course, I'm sure that they saw her lack of positions--indeed her lack of inquisitiveness--on foreign policy to be a strength in one sense. There are few past public statements or positions that could come out opposed to any of McCain's positions. So in that regard, she is an empty vessel waiting to be filled with McCain's talking points. They might get away with it in the short run-up to the election, but should the worst happen and they are elected, what role can she play that helps this country if she has no experience--or even any interest--in foreign policy?
On domestic issues, what are her economic plans to help put Americans back to work? How will she contribute to the debates about health care and the housing crisis? She probably knows a little bit about which policies would help put "Alaska First," but we need a lot more than that at the national level.
It is utterly inconceivable that McCain can look at her as someone who could help him govern the country--even after they have explained to her what exactly it is that the V.P. does. His cavalier treament of the vetting process makes it clear that McCain does not view the Vice Presidency as an important office (although Dick Cheney would probably disagree.). If the President stays healthy and doesn't do too much foreign travel, he or she can marginalize the role of the V.P. This is what McCain must envision his administration to look like. However, the rest of us have a different view. If something were to happen to a President McCain, the Vice President would have to be ready to lead. Not giving the country a qualified Vice President is a leadership failure of the highest magnitude.
Karl Rove, of all people, has stated that Palin is "not a governing decision but a campaign decision." But she is not just a pander, a campaign ploy, or a "hail mary pass." She is a grossly unqualified and deeply flawed candidate that McCain has personally selected to hold an office a heartbeat away from the Presidency. McCain has made a most reckless gamble and thoroughly disgraced himself in the process. The lack of vetting by his staff compounds his failure in judgment, and he is reaping the whirlwind that is Sarah Palin.
"Country First?" I don't think so. How about "Campaign First."
Well, it comes out today that the National Enquirer prompted Palin's press statement about her daughter's pregnancy--it seems that their staff knew a lot more about what was going on up in Alaska than McCain's did--and there surely is a lot more to follow. How much of it will surprise McCain? Because this comes out on the heels of a series of emerging, embarrassing details about how woefully inadequate the vetting process was. Both McCain camp statements and anecdotal evidence show that there was no rigorous check into her background or her political record.
Reporters who have actually traveled up to Alaska have discovered that they are breaking new ground in many cases. They are the first ones talking to people who know Sarah Palin (the current mayor of Wasilla, AK, for example.). They are the first ones to sift through some of her official records and the newspapers that covered her years as mayor. And as they sift, they are finding some rewarding nuggets. There is a constant stream of Palin news--and none of it good.
Leaving aside the family issues, fake pregnancy rumors, troopergate, dairygate, etc., it seems that a serious problem for McCain (if the campaign ever does return to the issues) is that her "reformer" credentials are seriously tarnished. I was dumbfounded to hear her repeat her claim that she said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" again tonight in her speech. The record on this is quite clear--she enthusiastically supported the project before the Federal government failed to come up with additional funds for it, which prompted her sudden reversal. Read the press release she sent out. There is nothing "reformer" about it. To her it was strictly a funding issue. Under her as Governor, Alaska continues to receive the highest per capita amount of earmark spending. And this is nothing new--her political career has been all about the earmarks--and cozying up to indicted Sen. Ted Stevens when it suited her purposes. She was the first Wasilla mayor to be an earmark crusader--a crusader in favor of getting as much pork for her town as she possibly could. A search of earmarks that McCain published in his pork lists includes several items personally proposed by Palin herself while mayor of Wasilla. This is a pretty serious disconnect with McCain, and one that they probably had not fully explored.
Indeed, it appears that the McCain folks did not explore much, limiting their version of the vetting process to a search of public records available on the internet. That's not vetting--that's called googling. Of course, they also asked her some very specific, hard-hitting questions and trusted that she would be completely open and honest about herself. No problem there, I'm sure.
McCain's personal contact with her was--by his campaign's own account--admittedly very limited. Meeting her briefly at a conference and then having a single face-to-face meeting with her before declaring her to be his "soul-mate." Bush has famously claimed to have looked into Putin's eyes and to have gotten a sense of his soul. Maybe this is a special gift that Republicans have. Perhaps not--look at how well that relationship is turning out.
The rush to vet appears to be a wholly political decision, a last minute game-changer, trying to gain traction to stem a wholesale stampede to the Democratic Party. It was easy to confirm her most important quality to the McCain camp--she's clearly a woman. Her appeal to the base was pretty easy to determine as well, and apparently that's all that it took to seal the deal.
She is placed on the Republican ticket as a Vice Presidential candidate without knowing what her positions are on major issues (hint: on foreign policy, she has none, unless you count her statement that the war in Iraq is "a task that is from God."). Of course, I'm sure that they saw her lack of positions--indeed her lack of inquisitiveness--on foreign policy to be a strength in one sense. There are few past public statements or positions that could come out opposed to any of McCain's positions. So in that regard, she is an empty vessel waiting to be filled with McCain's talking points. They might get away with it in the short run-up to the election, but should the worst happen and they are elected, what role can she play that helps this country if she has no experience--or even any interest--in foreign policy?
On domestic issues, what are her economic plans to help put Americans back to work? How will she contribute to the debates about health care and the housing crisis? She probably knows a little bit about which policies would help put "Alaska First," but we need a lot more than that at the national level.
It is utterly inconceivable that McCain can look at her as someone who could help him govern the country--even after they have explained to her what exactly it is that the V.P. does. His cavalier treament of the vetting process makes it clear that McCain does not view the Vice Presidency as an important office (although Dick Cheney would probably disagree.). If the President stays healthy and doesn't do too much foreign travel, he or she can marginalize the role of the V.P. This is what McCain must envision his administration to look like. However, the rest of us have a different view. If something were to happen to a President McCain, the Vice President would have to be ready to lead. Not giving the country a qualified Vice President is a leadership failure of the highest magnitude.
Karl Rove, of all people, has stated that Palin is "not a governing decision but a campaign decision." But she is not just a pander, a campaign ploy, or a "hail mary pass." She is a grossly unqualified and deeply flawed candidate that McCain has personally selected to hold an office a heartbeat away from the Presidency. McCain has made a most reckless gamble and thoroughly disgraced himself in the process. The lack of vetting by his staff compounds his failure in judgment, and he is reaping the whirlwind that is Sarah Palin.
"Country First?" I don't think so. How about "Campaign First."
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
So, who is willing to "take one for the team?"
If you've read any of my past posts, by now it is no secret that I think that adding Gov. Palin to the ticket is a disastrous, credibility-shredding move for John McCain. If you're in the McCain camp right now, its going to be a loooong two months to election time if she stays on the ticket (but on the bright side, you'll have a lot of free time, starting in November.).
So, now that you finally are starting to see the hand that you've dealt yourself, do you fold and find another Veep candidate or ante up on Palin?
First, the good news: your base is energized, and you may be able to keep a lot of that momentum if you can find another pro-life Veep candidate. Check. If you can find another pro-life woman, double check. You've set the "experience" bar so incredibly low with Palin (and gotten away with it with your base, so far), that it might actually be possible to find someone who fits these minimalist criteria. Also, Palin's personal story lends itself very easily to a compelling and understandable "bowing out" of the race, due to "personal and family reasons," so if you can find another candidate and can pry the Veep slot away from Palin, you're on the way.
Now, the bad news: who, in their right mind, would be willing to replace her on the ticket? The reason that McCain went to Palin in the first place was because he was in trouble. Selecting her compromised his integrity, caused his judgment to be questioned and revealed that the vetting process left a lot to be desired. Switching VPs only magnifies both McCain's failings and the Palin mistake, even if the electorate buys the story that she is voluntarily stepping aside.
Would a politician of any stature risk tying him or herself to a campaign that is on life support, having to campaign hard for two months, and then going home a loser? Generally, unsuccessful candidates don't get "do-overs." So whoever is picked would pretty much have to not have a burning desire to be President someday. There may be somebody out there. There may be somebody willing to "take one for the team."
So, now that you finally are starting to see the hand that you've dealt yourself, do you fold and find another Veep candidate or ante up on Palin?
First, the good news: your base is energized, and you may be able to keep a lot of that momentum if you can find another pro-life Veep candidate. Check. If you can find another pro-life woman, double check. You've set the "experience" bar so incredibly low with Palin (and gotten away with it with your base, so far), that it might actually be possible to find someone who fits these minimalist criteria. Also, Palin's personal story lends itself very easily to a compelling and understandable "bowing out" of the race, due to "personal and family reasons," so if you can find another candidate and can pry the Veep slot away from Palin, you're on the way.
Now, the bad news: who, in their right mind, would be willing to replace her on the ticket? The reason that McCain went to Palin in the first place was because he was in trouble. Selecting her compromised his integrity, caused his judgment to be questioned and revealed that the vetting process left a lot to be desired. Switching VPs only magnifies both McCain's failings and the Palin mistake, even if the electorate buys the story that she is voluntarily stepping aside.
Would a politician of any stature risk tying him or herself to a campaign that is on life support, having to campaign hard for two months, and then going home a loser? Generally, unsuccessful candidates don't get "do-overs." So whoever is picked would pretty much have to not have a burning desire to be President someday. There may be somebody out there. There may be somebody willing to "take one for the team."
Is the ticket now actually Palin/McCain?
Note to John McCain's staff: absolutely no one is buying your claims that y'all thoroughly vetted Gov. Palin. I understand that you have to make that claim in public but you know and we know that y'all really, really screwed up. Yes, she has a compelling personal story. Yes, she has electrified your base. Yes, she has generated a lot of curiosity and interest in the Republican Party. And yes, her presence alone will undoubtedly add some votes to your tally.
But her compelling personal story (and the skeletons that y'all didn't dig deeply enough to find) have been and will continue to dominate the news and step on any positive message that you are going to try to put out. Of course, you may have already run out of positive talking points about John McCain. Yes, we've heard that he's a former POW.
And your "Straight Talk Express" has just become the set for a really bad reality TV show. Of course, that might be a good thing if folks aren't buying "brand Republican" this year and you don't want to focus on message--that is, when you select a message to go with--if you can find one that isn't more complicated by Palin's addition to the ticket.
By the way, Gov. Palin isn't a true "maverick"--she's a redneck (and as former Tennessee resident I REALLY do NOT mean that in an insulting way) that may come with her own version of Jeremiah Wright, strange views on the inseparability of God and politics, and a bunch of secessionist friends. And the picture that is emerging of her past leadership roles reveals not a "reformer," but one who is prone to petty jealousy, obsessions over subordinate's loyalty and a vindictive streak a mile wide. She's also in deep with Ted Stevens and his earmarks--had you heard that his name will be in the news a lot these next two months, tied to a corruption scandal? Oh, and as it turns out, there's a chance that she really wasn't "Miss Congeniality" in her beauty pageant.
The public vetting of her past episodes and her upcoming gaffes will make your campaign look like amateur hour, all day, every day. You can send out McCain to a town hall meeting in one state, and Palin in another. Who will get the press coverage? If McCain does a great job and stays on message and Palin gaffes, guess who makes CNN? This will be the majority of your unpaid air time, and y'all will have to stay in full-time reaction mode (what the Governor meant to say was. . .)
So, the question is, who is really driving the train now? Is it still McCain/Palin? Or is it now Palin/McCain?
But her compelling personal story (and the skeletons that y'all didn't dig deeply enough to find) have been and will continue to dominate the news and step on any positive message that you are going to try to put out. Of course, you may have already run out of positive talking points about John McCain. Yes, we've heard that he's a former POW.
And your "Straight Talk Express" has just become the set for a really bad reality TV show. Of course, that might be a good thing if folks aren't buying "brand Republican" this year and you don't want to focus on message--that is, when you select a message to go with--if you can find one that isn't more complicated by Palin's addition to the ticket.
By the way, Gov. Palin isn't a true "maverick"--she's a redneck (and as former Tennessee resident I REALLY do NOT mean that in an insulting way) that may come with her own version of Jeremiah Wright, strange views on the inseparability of God and politics, and a bunch of secessionist friends. And the picture that is emerging of her past leadership roles reveals not a "reformer," but one who is prone to petty jealousy, obsessions over subordinate's loyalty and a vindictive streak a mile wide. She's also in deep with Ted Stevens and his earmarks--had you heard that his name will be in the news a lot these next two months, tied to a corruption scandal? Oh, and as it turns out, there's a chance that she really wasn't "Miss Congeniality" in her beauty pageant.
The public vetting of her past episodes and her upcoming gaffes will make your campaign look like amateur hour, all day, every day. You can send out McCain to a town hall meeting in one state, and Palin in another. Who will get the press coverage? If McCain does a great job and stays on message and Palin gaffes, guess who makes CNN? This will be the majority of your unpaid air time, and y'all will have to stay in full-time reaction mode (what the Governor meant to say was. . .)
So, the question is, who is really driving the train now? Is it still McCain/Palin? Or is it now Palin/McCain?
Throwing her daughter (and Levi Johnston) under the bus
Gov. Palin's statement about her daughter's pregnancy pleaded for respect for Bristol's privacy. Then, today, we discover that she was dragging the alleged baby's father from Alaska to Minnesota to step on stage during the largest media circus in the free world during this news cycle. Am I the only one who sees a little bit of hypocrisy here?
And, if I remember correctly, the alleged father's first name, Levi, was leaked in statements by the McCain/Palin camp. And they claim privacy? Come on. Really. How many high school aged boys named Levi live in Wasilla, AK, population nothing? How long did they think it would take bloggers to find his name, picture, MySpace page and hockey stats?
Note to mainstream media: Sarah Palin has bigger balls than you do. She has asked for a free pass on her daughter's pregnancy. For those of you who did giver her one, she has wadded it up and thrown it back in your face, laughing. She made a bold move that upped the ante (and yes, I think it was her move--possibly not coordinated with the McCain camp.). She just raised the stakes by flying Levi to the convention and planning to pose him onstage with her daughter, and you need to call her on this.
Now, I am NOT in any way, shape, or form suggesting "going after" the daughter or her medical records. Be polite to her. Be respectful. But DO talk to her. And to Levi. And if you are kept from them, protest, and protest LOUDLY. Because Gov. Palin should not be able to promote her values at the expense of children, thrust them--quite literally--to the most visible stage in America, garner the photo ops, and then hide behind a curtain of privacy.
And PLEASE keep on the Sarah Palin fake pregnancy story. This is NOT the same story as the recent announcement of her daughter's pregnancy. These are separate issues. Demand the facts on the Governor's pregnancy. There are too many inconsistencies and outright bizarre details for this to go unchecked.
And, if I remember correctly, the alleged father's first name, Levi, was leaked in statements by the McCain/Palin camp. And they claim privacy? Come on. Really. How many high school aged boys named Levi live in Wasilla, AK, population nothing? How long did they think it would take bloggers to find his name, picture, MySpace page and hockey stats?
Note to mainstream media: Sarah Palin has bigger balls than you do. She has asked for a free pass on her daughter's pregnancy. For those of you who did giver her one, she has wadded it up and thrown it back in your face, laughing. She made a bold move that upped the ante (and yes, I think it was her move--possibly not coordinated with the McCain camp.). She just raised the stakes by flying Levi to the convention and planning to pose him onstage with her daughter, and you need to call her on this.
Now, I am NOT in any way, shape, or form suggesting "going after" the daughter or her medical records. Be polite to her. Be respectful. But DO talk to her. And to Levi. And if you are kept from them, protest, and protest LOUDLY. Because Gov. Palin should not be able to promote her values at the expense of children, thrust them--quite literally--to the most visible stage in America, garner the photo ops, and then hide behind a curtain of privacy.
And PLEASE keep on the Sarah Palin fake pregnancy story. This is NOT the same story as the recent announcement of her daughter's pregnancy. These are separate issues. Demand the facts on the Governor's pregnancy. There are too many inconsistencies and outright bizarre details for this to go unchecked.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Why the Story Broke When the Water Broke
Gov. Palin's sudden announcement of her 17-year old unmarried daughter's pregnancy was an attempt to fend off investigation into the more serious and more damaging charge that she faked a pregnancy in March and April to cover up for her daughter. Rumors to this effect had apparently been floating around Alaska since Gov. Palin's March 2008 announcement that she was then 7 months pregnant.
Had Palin not been tapped as a VP candidate, these rumors would never have hit the national scene, and there is a decent chance that they would have died quietly and been buried in an Alaskan snow bank while Palin enjoyed a rewarding political career at the state level. Ironically, I believe that it was Palin's ego and her lust for national exposure which ultimately led to speculation within the state that all was not as the Governor claimed (see previously posted blog for likely scenario of her actions.).
When Palin made her pregnancy announcement (stating that she was 7 months pregnant) it was widely met with disbelief because she did not look even remotely pregnant--let alone 7 months pregnant. She had not even disclosed her "pregnancy" to her staff. These facts were picked up in a contemporary newspaper article in the ADN (link to article in earlier post). However, Palin was not willing to really play the role of a 7-month pregnant woman to the full extent required to pull off the charade under national scrutiny (which , at the time, she was not really expecting, as the Veep slot was still a distant dream at that point.).
An undated photo of Palin in a red shirt, allegedly from one of her earlier pregnancies, shows her as "big as a house." It is certainly not a flattering image, and compared to photographs of her 7th month of pregnancy in March 2008 (at age 44) there is a shocking contrast. See the link in a post below for a shot of her at the National Governors' Association on 25 February 2008--which should have been at the 6 1/2 month mark according to her timeline. There is also video footage--extended footage--of the governor hiking briskly through the streets with a reporter. This footage shows her from many angles and in motion, and she does not look at all pregnant in this footage, although it was shot during her 7th or 8th month of pregnancy. And the flight crew from Alaska Airways that flew with her back to Anchorage when she was eight months pregnant, the night before she gave birth to a 6 lb. 2 oz. baby, did not notice that she was pregnant.
Sarah Palin, a former beauty pageant contestant and television reporter who still worked out, was viewed as a "fashion plate," and apparently relished her reputation as the "Hottest Governor," certainly did not relish the thought of having to appear pregnant and larger than she actually was. Here, faking a pregnancy during the cold spring months in Alaska certainly helped, as it was natural to wear thick and/or layered clothing without being too out of style. But when push came to shove, her ego frequently won out, and she did not want to play the role of a woman in her third trimester.
There are a few photos that have surfaced in which she may appear pregnant, but they are all really inconclusive (distance shots, some with people or objects in the way, etc.). In many of these images, she is wearing a black suit. (Perhaps the same black suit? Not wanting to invest too much money in a lot of bogus maternity outfits? Something for internet gurus to research.). Also, the photos that have surfaced are all from official events (no surprise there), with the point being that she would have reasonably expected cameras to be present and would have had added incentive to play the role at these functions.
Photographic evidence of her appearing pregnant can never be conclusive when intentional deception on her part is suspected, because common sense will tell you that you can make your body look fatter than it actually is, in fully clothed shots. Remember that this is springtime in Alaska--we're not talking summer on the south Florida beaches here. However, a single, verifiable, dated photograph of a trim Sarah Palin would be enough to disprove a false pregnancy claim. This is not at all a double standard. If you are pregnant and showing, you can't instantly remove your baby bulge, but if you are not pregnant, you can easily add it under your clothing.
However, the most reckless episode of her charade was her trip to Dallas, TX to address a governor's conference on energy, where she had been selected to deliver the keynote address. This was simply too good--attention that she had been craving--to pass up. Ignoring the fact that if she really was pregnant she should not have made the trip, Palin went to Dallas. And, if she could have gotten back to Alaska before her daughter's water broke, all would have been well.
Had Bristol Palin's water broke when her mother was in Alaska (especially if she was in Wasilla), there would have been a quiet, unremarkable trip to the hospital, and the press would have been presented with a new baby boy and little reason to question the Governor's birthing. The comments on her fit appearance during pregnancy--and most likely her lightning fast return to full health and a trim figure after the baby--may have raised a few eyebrows, but nothing more. The "smoking gun," so to speak, was Palin's absolutely bizarre behavior on 17 April 2008, when she stayed to deliver her address after her water had broken hours before, refused to see any doctors in Texas, flew for over 8 hours back to Alaska, and then bypassed more competent and better equipped hospitals to deliver her child in a tight-lipped small community that she had been mayor of previously.
While it is still possible that all of this is in error and Sarah Palin did actually give birth to Trig Palin, I think that the common sense interpretation of the facts (along with her daughter's alleged 5-8 month absence from school during this time) shows that she attempted to protect her daughter and her political career. She almost got away with it--had her ego and her unwillingness to pass up her opportunity to speak in Dallas not gotten in the way.
If I was in the McCain camp, I would be asking for her medical records right now--had that not been done previously when they "vetted" her. If the facts support her claims, then put them on the table and we can all move past this--and on to the rest of the long list of items about why she is not qualified to step into the presidency.
However, I don't believe that the medical facts are on her side. If Gov. Palin did deliver Trig, and the medical records verify this, the McCain/Palin camp would have an incredibly direct and effective way to rebut the rumors once and for all: here are excerpts from Gov. Palin's medical records that show that she gave birth to Trig. Done. While I certainly do understand and support an individual's right to privacy, Gov. Palin IS the presumptive nominee for the second highest office in the nation. And, there are issues of personal ethics involved as well. If you're the McCain campaign and you can kill these rumors once and for all, why not do it?
Not being willing to use the facts leads to the assumption that the facts are not on your side, which in turn leads to speculation, and to posts such as this one. The initial story (or "conspiracy theory") that got me interested in this issue was based on largely circumstantial evidence, and has been reinforced by McCain/Palin's actions. This circumstantial evidence did two things: first, it pointed to glaring inconsistencies in Palin's story; second, it pointed to a highly plausible scenario that was 100% consistent with the available facts and connected to several powerful motives.
Absent conclusive evidence, the weight of the circumstantial information at this point goes against Gov. Palin, and her case is not at all helped by simply announcing (without presenting conclusive evidence) that her daughter is 5 months pregnant. If untrue, using the daughter as a circumspect scapegoat is pretty low, even if it was her pregnancy that initially started the whole mess. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Gov. Palin ever explicitly claiming in her statement "I gave birth to Trig. My daughter did not." Without strongly and unequivocally denying the rumors, the statements from McCain/Palin that I read did three things: they discussed the daughter's pregnancy, stated that the information was released to counter internet rumors, and asked for a free pass because it was a personal matter of a family member.
Even if the press is willing to give the daughter a free pass, there are still the mother's actions
to look into. Being the presumptive Republican nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States does not entitle her to a free pass; instead it demands a higher level of scrutiny, accountability and responsibility.
Had Palin not been tapped as a VP candidate, these rumors would never have hit the national scene, and there is a decent chance that they would have died quietly and been buried in an Alaskan snow bank while Palin enjoyed a rewarding political career at the state level. Ironically, I believe that it was Palin's ego and her lust for national exposure which ultimately led to speculation within the state that all was not as the Governor claimed (see previously posted blog for likely scenario of her actions.).
When Palin made her pregnancy announcement (stating that she was 7 months pregnant) it was widely met with disbelief because she did not look even remotely pregnant--let alone 7 months pregnant. She had not even disclosed her "pregnancy" to her staff. These facts were picked up in a contemporary newspaper article in the ADN (link to article in earlier post). However, Palin was not willing to really play the role of a 7-month pregnant woman to the full extent required to pull off the charade under national scrutiny (which , at the time, she was not really expecting, as the Veep slot was still a distant dream at that point.).
An undated photo of Palin in a red shirt, allegedly from one of her earlier pregnancies, shows her as "big as a house." It is certainly not a flattering image, and compared to photographs of her 7th month of pregnancy in March 2008 (at age 44) there is a shocking contrast. See the link in a post below for a shot of her at the National Governors' Association on 25 February 2008--which should have been at the 6 1/2 month mark according to her timeline. There is also video footage--extended footage--of the governor hiking briskly through the streets with a reporter. This footage shows her from many angles and in motion, and she does not look at all pregnant in this footage, although it was shot during her 7th or 8th month of pregnancy. And the flight crew from Alaska Airways that flew with her back to Anchorage when she was eight months pregnant, the night before she gave birth to a 6 lb. 2 oz. baby, did not notice that she was pregnant.
Sarah Palin, a former beauty pageant contestant and television reporter who still worked out, was viewed as a "fashion plate," and apparently relished her reputation as the "Hottest Governor," certainly did not relish the thought of having to appear pregnant and larger than she actually was. Here, faking a pregnancy during the cold spring months in Alaska certainly helped, as it was natural to wear thick and/or layered clothing without being too out of style. But when push came to shove, her ego frequently won out, and she did not want to play the role of a woman in her third trimester.
There are a few photos that have surfaced in which she may appear pregnant, but they are all really inconclusive (distance shots, some with people or objects in the way, etc.). In many of these images, she is wearing a black suit. (Perhaps the same black suit? Not wanting to invest too much money in a lot of bogus maternity outfits? Something for internet gurus to research.). Also, the photos that have surfaced are all from official events (no surprise there), with the point being that she would have reasonably expected cameras to be present and would have had added incentive to play the role at these functions.
Photographic evidence of her appearing pregnant can never be conclusive when intentional deception on her part is suspected, because common sense will tell you that you can make your body look fatter than it actually is, in fully clothed shots. Remember that this is springtime in Alaska--we're not talking summer on the south Florida beaches here. However, a single, verifiable, dated photograph of a trim Sarah Palin would be enough to disprove a false pregnancy claim. This is not at all a double standard. If you are pregnant and showing, you can't instantly remove your baby bulge, but if you are not pregnant, you can easily add it under your clothing.
However, the most reckless episode of her charade was her trip to Dallas, TX to address a governor's conference on energy, where she had been selected to deliver the keynote address. This was simply too good--attention that she had been craving--to pass up. Ignoring the fact that if she really was pregnant she should not have made the trip, Palin went to Dallas. And, if she could have gotten back to Alaska before her daughter's water broke, all would have been well.
Had Bristol Palin's water broke when her mother was in Alaska (especially if she was in Wasilla), there would have been a quiet, unremarkable trip to the hospital, and the press would have been presented with a new baby boy and little reason to question the Governor's birthing. The comments on her fit appearance during pregnancy--and most likely her lightning fast return to full health and a trim figure after the baby--may have raised a few eyebrows, but nothing more. The "smoking gun," so to speak, was Palin's absolutely bizarre behavior on 17 April 2008, when she stayed to deliver her address after her water had broken hours before, refused to see any doctors in Texas, flew for over 8 hours back to Alaska, and then bypassed more competent and better equipped hospitals to deliver her child in a tight-lipped small community that she had been mayor of previously.
While it is still possible that all of this is in error and Sarah Palin did actually give birth to Trig Palin, I think that the common sense interpretation of the facts (along with her daughter's alleged 5-8 month absence from school during this time) shows that she attempted to protect her daughter and her political career. She almost got away with it--had her ego and her unwillingness to pass up her opportunity to speak in Dallas not gotten in the way.
If I was in the McCain camp, I would be asking for her medical records right now--had that not been done previously when they "vetted" her. If the facts support her claims, then put them on the table and we can all move past this--and on to the rest of the long list of items about why she is not qualified to step into the presidency.
However, I don't believe that the medical facts are on her side. If Gov. Palin did deliver Trig, and the medical records verify this, the McCain/Palin camp would have an incredibly direct and effective way to rebut the rumors once and for all: here are excerpts from Gov. Palin's medical records that show that she gave birth to Trig. Done. While I certainly do understand and support an individual's right to privacy, Gov. Palin IS the presumptive nominee for the second highest office in the nation. And, there are issues of personal ethics involved as well. If you're the McCain campaign and you can kill these rumors once and for all, why not do it?
Not being willing to use the facts leads to the assumption that the facts are not on your side, which in turn leads to speculation, and to posts such as this one. The initial story (or "conspiracy theory") that got me interested in this issue was based on largely circumstantial evidence, and has been reinforced by McCain/Palin's actions. This circumstantial evidence did two things: first, it pointed to glaring inconsistencies in Palin's story; second, it pointed to a highly plausible scenario that was 100% consistent with the available facts and connected to several powerful motives.
Absent conclusive evidence, the weight of the circumstantial information at this point goes against Gov. Palin, and her case is not at all helped by simply announcing (without presenting conclusive evidence) that her daughter is 5 months pregnant. If untrue, using the daughter as a circumspect scapegoat is pretty low, even if it was her pregnancy that initially started the whole mess. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Gov. Palin ever explicitly claiming in her statement "I gave birth to Trig. My daughter did not." Without strongly and unequivocally denying the rumors, the statements from McCain/Palin that I read did three things: they discussed the daughter's pregnancy, stated that the information was released to counter internet rumors, and asked for a free pass because it was a personal matter of a family member.
Even if the press is willing to give the daughter a free pass, there are still the mother's actions
to look into. Being the presumptive Republican nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States does not entitle her to a free pass; instead it demands a higher level of scrutiny, accountability and responsibility.
Covering up one lie with another
So Gov. Palin has stated that her daughter Bristol is actually about 5 months pregnant. How totally convenient! That is the PERFECT excuse at the PERFECT time. Perhaps a little too perfect.
"About 5 months" is JUST long enough to physically disqualify her from mothering baby Trig, yet is NOT QUITE long enough for her to be physically showing very much with her current child.
Now let's add the common sense perspective. If Bristol is indeed "about 5 months" pregnant, she would be "about 7 months" pregnant at election time. Was Palin hoping that she could keep her pregnant daughter under wraps until after the election? Possibly, After a few weeks on the campaign trail, her children could return to Alaska to "normalize their lives," "return to school," etc. When she moved up to the national stage, Palin had to know that her family would come under scrutiny--the flip side of the benefits of being America's newest media darlings. Unless she was planning on concealing Bristol's pregnancy through the election (not a far reach, given Palin's staunch support for abstinence-only education), the time to announce the baby would have been during her introduction as McCain's V.P. pick. It could go something like this:
And, in addition, to my wonderful family of 5 children that I've just introduced to you, I'd like to let you all know that in a few short months, I will become a grandmother! (pause for applause and cheers) My daughter Bristol and her fiancee are expecting their first child, and we couldn't be more proud of her decision to bring another lovely child--another Alaskan--into this world!
It would have been breathtaking and electrifying. The crowd, especially the pro-life crowd, would have eaten it up. She would simultaneously pander to mothers (especially with her fairly useful appearance, combined with her recent delivery of Trig) AND grandmothers (the older female demographic that may include some Hillary "dead-enders."). It would have been political magic that would have made her personal story all the more compelling, and it would have taken this issue completely off the table once and for all. Her daughter's unmarried status would get scant attention, given all of the other facts to sift through and her openness about it--no real story there, after all.
This is one of the many things that makes me believe that the Bristol Palin's 5-month pregnancy is completely false (either she is NOT currently pregnant and will conveniently miscarry the baby OR she is only about 3 months pregnant, and is actually carrying her second child) is that
hiding her pregnancy is a dangerous move--and the McCain camp knows this. You put yourself at the mercy of the press and lose all momentum when the story breaks. The breaking story dominates the news cycle, knocks you off message--and it also looks like an intentional cover-up. McCain/Palin had the opportunity to break (and essentially bury) the story by making it part of Palin's biography. Choosing not to do so strongly suggests to me that McCain's staff did not know about the pregnancy at all.
Why try to cover up the Governor's pregnancy rumors with another lie? Two reasons. First, because they have constructed the "perfect" excuse (5-month pregnancy) to rebut the rumors. Second, because by admitting to a pregnancy they hope that they can place the entire topic off-limits, in respect of the daughter's privacy.
Obama was wise to loudly denounce the rumors and to call for placing family members off limits. While I'm pretty sure that his position is sincere (given his reaction to slander against his wife and the fact that he has two young daughters), this is the only position that he can publicly take. However, the central issues also involve Gov. Palin's credibility and integrity--and need to be fully investigated by the media--and not by the Obama campaign. There is no role for the Democratic Party in pushing these allegations and rumors. However, the media DOES have an affirmative responsibility to examine them thoroughly, because they have been brought up and made center stage by the McCain/Palin campaign. They don't get a free pass because they have simply acknowledged and denied rumors.
The basic facts underlying the original Sarah Palin pregnancy--especially her incredibly bizarre behavior in returning to Wasilla to give birth--are still not answered or explained by the daughter's current "pregnancy." And, more importantly, the issue of who really mothered Trig centers around the possibility that Gov. Palin repeatedly lied to the media, her staff, and her constituents--and continues to lie about it. Gov. Palin's integrity is not and should never be "off limits."
"About 5 months" is JUST long enough to physically disqualify her from mothering baby Trig, yet is NOT QUITE long enough for her to be physically showing very much with her current child.
Now let's add the common sense perspective. If Bristol is indeed "about 5 months" pregnant, she would be "about 7 months" pregnant at election time. Was Palin hoping that she could keep her pregnant daughter under wraps until after the election? Possibly, After a few weeks on the campaign trail, her children could return to Alaska to "normalize their lives," "return to school," etc. When she moved up to the national stage, Palin had to know that her family would come under scrutiny--the flip side of the benefits of being America's newest media darlings. Unless she was planning on concealing Bristol's pregnancy through the election (not a far reach, given Palin's staunch support for abstinence-only education), the time to announce the baby would have been during her introduction as McCain's V.P. pick. It could go something like this:
And, in addition, to my wonderful family of 5 children that I've just introduced to you, I'd like to let you all know that in a few short months, I will become a grandmother! (pause for applause and cheers) My daughter Bristol and her fiancee are expecting their first child, and we couldn't be more proud of her decision to bring another lovely child--another Alaskan--into this world!
It would have been breathtaking and electrifying. The crowd, especially the pro-life crowd, would have eaten it up. She would simultaneously pander to mothers (especially with her fairly useful appearance, combined with her recent delivery of Trig) AND grandmothers (the older female demographic that may include some Hillary "dead-enders."). It would have been political magic that would have made her personal story all the more compelling, and it would have taken this issue completely off the table once and for all. Her daughter's unmarried status would get scant attention, given all of the other facts to sift through and her openness about it--no real story there, after all.
This is one of the many things that makes me believe that the Bristol Palin's 5-month pregnancy is completely false (either she is NOT currently pregnant and will conveniently miscarry the baby OR she is only about 3 months pregnant, and is actually carrying her second child) is that
hiding her pregnancy is a dangerous move--and the McCain camp knows this. You put yourself at the mercy of the press and lose all momentum when the story breaks. The breaking story dominates the news cycle, knocks you off message--and it also looks like an intentional cover-up. McCain/Palin had the opportunity to break (and essentially bury) the story by making it part of Palin's biography. Choosing not to do so strongly suggests to me that McCain's staff did not know about the pregnancy at all.
Why try to cover up the Governor's pregnancy rumors with another lie? Two reasons. First, because they have constructed the "perfect" excuse (5-month pregnancy) to rebut the rumors. Second, because by admitting to a pregnancy they hope that they can place the entire topic off-limits, in respect of the daughter's privacy.
Obama was wise to loudly denounce the rumors and to call for placing family members off limits. While I'm pretty sure that his position is sincere (given his reaction to slander against his wife and the fact that he has two young daughters), this is the only position that he can publicly take. However, the central issues also involve Gov. Palin's credibility and integrity--and need to be fully investigated by the media--and not by the Obama campaign. There is no role for the Democratic Party in pushing these allegations and rumors. However, the media DOES have an affirmative responsibility to examine them thoroughly, because they have been brought up and made center stage by the McCain/Palin campaign. They don't get a free pass because they have simply acknowledged and denied rumors.
The basic facts underlying the original Sarah Palin pregnancy--especially her incredibly bizarre behavior in returning to Wasilla to give birth--are still not answered or explained by the daughter's current "pregnancy." And, more importantly, the issue of who really mothered Trig centers around the possibility that Gov. Palin repeatedly lied to the media, her staff, and her constituents--and continues to lie about it. Gov. Palin's integrity is not and should never be "off limits."
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Conceding the Experience Argument
Pundits have correctly pointed out that McCain's selection of Palin signifies that he is giving up on the "Obama lacks experience" argument. Since this seemed to have been making some headway, why give it up?
Because of Obama's political ability.
First, Obama showed a true statesmanship on his European and Mideastern tour. Can he get results? Honestly, we don't know. But he is clearly well-liked abroad, by both foreign leaders and foreign populations, which is a big plus to America after 8 years of "Yee-haw Diplomacy."
Second, Obama selected Joe Biden as his running mate, placing one of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Senate on his ticket. A great move, especially if Biden continues to praise Obama's judgment and reinforces his eagerness to work alongside President Obama.
Third, Bill Clinton delivered a pretty good endorsement of Obama at the Democratic National Convention. As a former Commander-in-Chief, although not well-liked in all quarters, his affirmation of Obama's readiness to lead carries great weight with most Democratic and many Independent voters. A former C-in-C's opinion in favor of essentially outweighs a fellow senator's opinion against.
And most importantly, Obama looked pretty damn presidential in Denver during his acceptance speech. 38 million viewers saw this, and, unless they are die-hard Republicans, could not help but be impressed. Trying to "unconvince" these 38 million viewers that what they saw with their own eyes wasn't real was a losing battle.
McCain's only move left open was to go after the "change" banner by adding a reformer and true Washington outsider to the ticket in an effort to reclaim his "maverick" label. It certainly helps that she's a woman--I believe that this became a non-negotiable requirement in his mind. With Palin, McCain also both shored up his conservative base with a pro-life, pro-gun running mate and sought to distance himself from the millstone around his neck known as "W." I believe that the decision to pivot and go after the change mantle instead of hammering away with "lack of experience" was initiated prior to the early days of the Democratic National Convention and validated by Obama's masterful speech Thursday night.
Adding a woman was a great move--and, incidentally, one that I predicted a few hours prior to his announcement of Palin. But who in their right mind would have foreseen that specific pick?
The big problem for McCain is that, after deciding to pivot so sharply, he and his staff ran out of time and did not examine Palin very thoroughly (apparently, hardly at all.). McCain barely knows who she is. My gut tells me that he selected her--someone so grossly unqualified for the VP slot--because he was gambling that she had a very slim record that was devoid of serious negatives and, more importantly, because she was one of the only women who would take the job!
McCain's campaign is in trouble. Facing a fairly united and highly-energized Democratic Party, he needed to really shake things up, and selecting a woman was a bold move. It would have been a bolder move had he found a credible woman to place on his ticket, but my guess is that none of the qualified women wanted to join what they saw as a losing ticket.
In this election, there is very little potential downside for Palin. She is not known outside Alaska. Her beauty pageant ego would eventually like to be worshiped in the lower 48, preferably at the national level. As a first-term governor in the middle of her first term, winning the White House this year is not essential. She can relish the national exposure for two months, lose, and then return to a hero's welcome in Alaska for having "fought the good fight" and putting Alaska in the public eye. And as long as her skeletons stay buried, she has a chance of remaining one of America's media darlings with a chance to return to prominence as a Senator or even as a future presidential candidate in 8 years.
We'll see how it all plays out, but the more that I have looked into Palin, the more negatives that surface. She has had a strong outpouring of support from single-issue voters (pro-life, pro-gun, women who want to vote for a woman regardless of the cost to the country.). Thinking individuals will see a somewhat intelligent and opportunistic but uninformed politician who is in no way ready to lead at the national level. They will see a complete lack of experience--and see that the lack of experience charge now belongs to Obama campaign to use.
Because of Obama's political ability.
First, Obama showed a true statesmanship on his European and Mideastern tour. Can he get results? Honestly, we don't know. But he is clearly well-liked abroad, by both foreign leaders and foreign populations, which is a big plus to America after 8 years of "Yee-haw Diplomacy."
Second, Obama selected Joe Biden as his running mate, placing one of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Senate on his ticket. A great move, especially if Biden continues to praise Obama's judgment and reinforces his eagerness to work alongside President Obama.
Third, Bill Clinton delivered a pretty good endorsement of Obama at the Democratic National Convention. As a former Commander-in-Chief, although not well-liked in all quarters, his affirmation of Obama's readiness to lead carries great weight with most Democratic and many Independent voters. A former C-in-C's opinion in favor of essentially outweighs a fellow senator's opinion against.
And most importantly, Obama looked pretty damn presidential in Denver during his acceptance speech. 38 million viewers saw this, and, unless they are die-hard Republicans, could not help but be impressed. Trying to "unconvince" these 38 million viewers that what they saw with their own eyes wasn't real was a losing battle.
McCain's only move left open was to go after the "change" banner by adding a reformer and true Washington outsider to the ticket in an effort to reclaim his "maverick" label. It certainly helps that she's a woman--I believe that this became a non-negotiable requirement in his mind. With Palin, McCain also both shored up his conservative base with a pro-life, pro-gun running mate and sought to distance himself from the millstone around his neck known as "W." I believe that the decision to pivot and go after the change mantle instead of hammering away with "lack of experience" was initiated prior to the early days of the Democratic National Convention and validated by Obama's masterful speech Thursday night.
Adding a woman was a great move--and, incidentally, one that I predicted a few hours prior to his announcement of Palin. But who in their right mind would have foreseen that specific pick?
The big problem for McCain is that, after deciding to pivot so sharply, he and his staff ran out of time and did not examine Palin very thoroughly (apparently, hardly at all.). McCain barely knows who she is. My gut tells me that he selected her--someone so grossly unqualified for the VP slot--because he was gambling that she had a very slim record that was devoid of serious negatives and, more importantly, because she was one of the only women who would take the job!
McCain's campaign is in trouble. Facing a fairly united and highly-energized Democratic Party, he needed to really shake things up, and selecting a woman was a bold move. It would have been a bolder move had he found a credible woman to place on his ticket, but my guess is that none of the qualified women wanted to join what they saw as a losing ticket.
In this election, there is very little potential downside for Palin. She is not known outside Alaska. Her beauty pageant ego would eventually like to be worshiped in the lower 48, preferably at the national level. As a first-term governor in the middle of her first term, winning the White House this year is not essential. She can relish the national exposure for two months, lose, and then return to a hero's welcome in Alaska for having "fought the good fight" and putting Alaska in the public eye. And as long as her skeletons stay buried, she has a chance of remaining one of America's media darlings with a chance to return to prominence as a Senator or even as a future presidential candidate in 8 years.
We'll see how it all plays out, but the more that I have looked into Palin, the more negatives that surface. She has had a strong outpouring of support from single-issue voters (pro-life, pro-gun, women who want to vote for a woman regardless of the cost to the country.). Thinking individuals will see a somewhat intelligent and opportunistic but uninformed politician who is in no way ready to lead at the national level. They will see a complete lack of experience--and see that the lack of experience charge now belongs to Obama campaign to use.
OK conspiracy theorists, here we go again. . .
The internet rumor mill has spawned a very interesting theory about Gov. Palin's fifth child, Trig Paxson Van Palin, who was born with Down Syndrome on 18 April 2008. The gist of the rumor is that the mother of the child is not Gov. Sarah Palin, but rather her daughter, Bristol. The case for Bristol's motherhood, while circumstantial, is fairly compelling. When added together, several of the "facts" and conjectures are completely inconsistent with Sarah's motherhood, but completely consistent with Bristol's motherhood.
Paraphrase of Gov. Palin's version: she became pregnant, but decided to tell no one, not even her closest friends and advisers, until the seventh month of her pregnancy, at which time she felt that she was finally beginning to show. On 17 April 2008, in the eighth month of her pregnancy, she began leaking amniotic fluid in the morning while she was attending a governor's conference on energy in Dallas, TX. After a phone consultation with her physician in Alaska, she stayed to deliver the keynote address, and then left for the airport where she boarded an Alaskan Airways flight. She did not inform the airline that she was pregnant or that her water had broken before boarding the flight, because she was not legally required to do so. During the 8 hours in the air (not including a stopover in Seattle), she did not inform the flight crew of her pregnancy because she felt that she was not showing and did not want to make a fuss. Arriving in Anchorage, Alaska, she and her husband continued on an additional 45 minutes to get to her home town of Wasilla, where she delivered the baby.
There was almost instant skepticism of this story up in Alaska; it was reported on at www.redditt.com over 4 months ago.
Here are some "facts" that do not seem to jive with Gov. Palin's sequence of events.
Everyone was "shocked and awed" by her pregnancy announcement. Her staff had not even been informed of her pregnancy, which is very surprising on two points. First, a woman in her last trimester of pregnancy needs to look after her unborn child, and a caring mother would have made the announcement--at least privately to her staff--so that they could help watch her schedule for events that might be damaging to her pregnancy. Most physicians would recommend a dramatic reduction in air travel, for example, which could effect her mobility around the state and impact her schedule and the performance of official duties. Second, if she was at elevated risk to be incapacitated for any period of time, the Lieutenant Governor should have been informed, as well as the State Adjutant General. This is a matter of competent leadership.
An article from the Anchorage Daily News on 6 March 2008 (less than a month and a half before she allegedly gave birth) reveals that there was widespread surprise to her pregnancy announcement: http://www.adn.com/front/story/336402.html She simply did not look or act pregnant, and the announcement that she was 7 months pregnant was generally met with disbelief.
Other anecdotal evidence can be found on the web that she was clearly not behaving as a pregnant woman in terms of limiting her activities or showing her pregnancy through her fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth months. She is in many photographs where she does not appear to be pregnant; many others are inconclusive. See the image from the National Governor's Association Conference on 25 February 2008, for example, at: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca9501010a0/?vgnextoid=3ef7315eff9e7110VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=5f0f749a71302010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD
Skepticism about the details of the pregnancy, at least as they were related by Gov. Palin, began appearing almost immediately. If you read between the lines in this article in the Anchorage Daily News, the reporter was questioning her actions in flying back to Alaska, which would have been against the advice of most competent physicians, and includes some relevant comments from the flight crew: http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html
Had Gov. Palin really been pregnant (as a mother in her early 40's, carrying a special needs child that was about a month premature), and had leaked amniotic fluid, would not the rational course of action to protect the health of the child have been to have seen a doctor in Dallas, at least for a checkup to ensure that she and her unborn child could safely fly? I'm obviously not a mother, but to me this is completely inconsistent with what a mother would have done.
Boarding an 8-hour flight (longer actually, if you count the stopover in Seattle), without informing the airline or the air crew that you are pregnant and that your water had broke, is just plain reckless. What about consideration for the passengers on the flight, should the flight have to be diverted? But more importantly, did she really want to be in the position of giving birth to a premature, special needs baby 30,000 feet in the air? If she really was pregnant, what does that say about her judgment and parental fitness?
Upon arriving on the ground in Anchorage, where there are hospitals with facilities and trained staff to deal with premature births and special needs babies, Palin decides to bypass these hospitals in order to drive an additional 45 minutes to Wasilla, to a less-capable facility to give birth. Again, if she was really pregnant, why take the extra time, and why go to a hospital with lesser facilities? It is reported on the web that her doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, a family practitioner and a recognized expert in Child and Adult Sexual Abuse (not an OB/GYN) had affiliations with the hospitals in Anchorage, and could have met Palin at one of them, alleviating the need for the 45-minute car trip to Wasilla and allowing for better facilities, and other trained staff to be present.
In short, if Gov. Palin was in fact Trig's mother, she made several very questionable calls regarding his health.
Now, here's another piece of the puzzle. Then 16-year old Bristol Palin was reportedly out of school for between 5 and 8 months (reports vary) during this time, with an alleged case of mono. She was also reported to have gained weight, and bloggers are buzzing about a picture allegedly taken in December 2007 in which Bristol is beginning to show, but Gov. Palin most definitely is not. Too hard to make a definitive call from a photo.
Gov. Palin has a long history with Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, going back to Palin's days as the Mayor of Wasilla, AK. In 2002, Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson was named the Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians. She was assisted by a glowing reference from then-mayor Palin. However, their association did not end there. Below are excerpts from a press release:
May 8, 2007, Juneau, AK – Governor Sarah Palin today announced the appointment of 14 Alaskans to the Alaska Health Care Strategies Planning Council.
Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of Wasilla is a private practice family physician and the 2002 National Family Physician of the Year from the American Academy of Family Physicians. In 1999, Baldwin-Johnson co-founded and is the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, and since 2005 has served as a consultant and trainer on child abuse issues. Baldwin-Johnson graduated from the University of Washington School of Medicine where she participated in the WWAMI Medical School program.
For some reason, this press release has recently been removed from the web, but is available in cache at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:e0U6tvTkFHwJ:gov.state.ak.us/archive.php%3Fid%3D368%26type%3D1+%22Cathy+Baldwin-Johnson%22+palin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us
Just suppose, for an instant, that Gov. Palin is NOT the mother. Here is a "fictitious" or alternate version of events, which is much, much more consistent with the information above: Bristol Palin, a 16-year old high school student, becomes pregnant, but is ignorant of this fact or keeps it hidden from her family as long as she possibly can. When her pregnancy is revealed to her family, her mother goes into crisis management mode. An abortion is simply not an option for a pro-life Republican Governor's unmarried minor daughter. However, carrying the baby to term will highlight the failure of the Gov. Palin's promotion of abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. The decision is made to announce the mother's pregnancy, perhaps offsetting it with her daughter's actual pregnancy by a month or so to give the appearance of a premature birth. This also has the advantage of requiring less time for the charade to play out in public. Gov. Palin announces her "pregnancy" to a stunned statewide audience, and declares that she is showing, just a bit. The winter and early spring months in Alaska favor bulky clothing anyways, and who would really doubt her pregnancy claim? In April, the prospect of delivering the keynote address to the governor's conference on energy is just too juicy a plum to pass up. So, crossing their fingers, Sarah and Todd Palin head to Dallas, despite the fact that a pregnant woman in her eighth month would not normally be traveling on 8+ hour airplane flights. Early in the morning on the 17th, disaster strikes, as Bristol's water breaks, and the Governor realizes that she has to get back to Alaska as quickly as she can--but not before claiming that her water has broken--and not before seizing her moment in the spotlight to give her speech. Instead of visiting a Dallas-area doctor to check on the baby before flying, which a concerned mother would do, she boards the flight to Alaska. She does not see a doctor or inform the airlines or flight crew because there is no baby--and she cannot run the risk of someone actually examining her. On arrival in Alaska, she does not go to the better equipped and staffed Anchorage hospitals, or have Baldwin-Johnson meet her there, because, again, there is no baby. She drives to Wasilla, AK where her long-time friend and crony Baldwin-Johnson is ready to maintain the charade. Palin, the one-time mayor and current resident of Wasilla, is in a locality that she can control, and bring the drama to its conclusion, when her daughter Bristol delivers Trig away from all eyes.
Now, the events I have outlined above are purely "fiction," an academic exercise in "how" this could have been carried out, just barely touching on the "why." The scenario above entails quite a bit of risk on Gov. Palin's part, but there is the potential for a big pay-off (or at least the avoidance of a catastrophe) if she can pull it off. Here are some of the really big "whys" that would have prompted them to take the gamble:
First, as a pro-life, pro-abstinence Republican, her credibility would take a huge hit if her unmarried minor daughter gives birth. Palin may have been able to continue in Alaskan politics, but she would have no hope for national exposure in Republican circles.
Second, by her knowingly carrying a Down Syndrome baby to term while in the Governor's mansion, she has scored tremendous points with the pro-life crowd. Talk about street cred! She is now the poster woman for both the pro-life movement and for working mothers.
Third, there was probably some level of concern for Bristol's well-being, and possibly some small amount for her reputation as well. Politically, this gave the Governor a fall-back plan if her ruse was discovered--she was just a devoted mother covering up for her daughter. Of course, she would be finished on the national stage, but probably could have continued on in Alaska as the darling of the motherhood crowd who may even view her deceit as the commendable defense of her child.
Fourth, after working out the timing (winter/spring months) they realized that they could probably get away with it, if they were audacious enough.
Fifth, due to their connections and loyalties in small-town Wasilla, the plan had a reasonable chance of success. Why would Dr. Baldwin-Johnson be a willing participant? Probably for several reasons, among them that she was most likely Bristol's doctor for a long time and would have a genuine desire to take care of her if she could, and her treatment of her would be covered by confidentiality practices. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson, as the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, would have a natural inclination to protect Bristol, especially if the pregnancy was the result of abuse or a sexual assault.
So . . . where does this all lead? Only time will tell. Not surprisingly, reaction to the idea is sharply divided along partisan lines. An interesting wrinkle is that the liberal/Democratic base is divided as well, with some convinced that this story is planted in an effort to trick the liberal media into launching an utterly condemnable attack on Gov. Palin.
I doubt that the McCain camp will even publicly acknowledge the story and so will take no steps to debunk it. It is way too red-hot for the Obama camp to touch, even through surrogates, unless portions of it can be independently verified. In a democracy, it would be wonderful if this story could be investigated thoroughly and either be laid to rest as a baseless rumor or, if true, have its rightful impact on the career of an unsuitable VP candidate who clearly was not vetted by the McCain camp.
Here's one of the underlying ironies: this story is most likely too hot to touch by the MSM because of its potential implications. However, even if portions of it are true--as stipulated by Gov. Palin herself--it raises some very serious and legitimate questions about her judgment. If she was indeed with child, do we really want to put a woman, in her early 40's, who would undertake two 8+ hour flights while 8 months pregnant with a special needs child--the second flight taking place after she had been leaking amniotic fluid for several hours and without having consulting a doctor for a hands-on medical exam--in the White House?
Paraphrase of Gov. Palin's version: she became pregnant, but decided to tell no one, not even her closest friends and advisers, until the seventh month of her pregnancy, at which time she felt that she was finally beginning to show. On 17 April 2008, in the eighth month of her pregnancy, she began leaking amniotic fluid in the morning while she was attending a governor's conference on energy in Dallas, TX. After a phone consultation with her physician in Alaska, she stayed to deliver the keynote address, and then left for the airport where she boarded an Alaskan Airways flight. She did not inform the airline that she was pregnant or that her water had broken before boarding the flight, because she was not legally required to do so. During the 8 hours in the air (not including a stopover in Seattle), she did not inform the flight crew of her pregnancy because she felt that she was not showing and did not want to make a fuss. Arriving in Anchorage, Alaska, she and her husband continued on an additional 45 minutes to get to her home town of Wasilla, where she delivered the baby.
There was almost instant skepticism of this story up in Alaska; it was reported on at www.redditt.com over 4 months ago.
Here are some "facts" that do not seem to jive with Gov. Palin's sequence of events.
Everyone was "shocked and awed" by her pregnancy announcement. Her staff had not even been informed of her pregnancy, which is very surprising on two points. First, a woman in her last trimester of pregnancy needs to look after her unborn child, and a caring mother would have made the announcement--at least privately to her staff--so that they could help watch her schedule for events that might be damaging to her pregnancy. Most physicians would recommend a dramatic reduction in air travel, for example, which could effect her mobility around the state and impact her schedule and the performance of official duties. Second, if she was at elevated risk to be incapacitated for any period of time, the Lieutenant Governor should have been informed, as well as the State Adjutant General. This is a matter of competent leadership.
An article from the Anchorage Daily News on 6 March 2008 (less than a month and a half before she allegedly gave birth) reveals that there was widespread surprise to her pregnancy announcement: http://www.adn.com/front/story/336402.html She simply did not look or act pregnant, and the announcement that she was 7 months pregnant was generally met with disbelief.
Other anecdotal evidence can be found on the web that she was clearly not behaving as a pregnant woman in terms of limiting her activities or showing her pregnancy through her fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth months. She is in many photographs where she does not appear to be pregnant; many others are inconclusive. See the image from the National Governor's Association Conference on 25 February 2008, for example, at: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca9501010a0/?vgnextoid=3ef7315eff9e7110VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=5f0f749a71302010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD
Skepticism about the details of the pregnancy, at least as they were related by Gov. Palin, began appearing almost immediately. If you read between the lines in this article in the Anchorage Daily News, the reporter was questioning her actions in flying back to Alaska, which would have been against the advice of most competent physicians, and includes some relevant comments from the flight crew: http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html
Had Gov. Palin really been pregnant (as a mother in her early 40's, carrying a special needs child that was about a month premature), and had leaked amniotic fluid, would not the rational course of action to protect the health of the child have been to have seen a doctor in Dallas, at least for a checkup to ensure that she and her unborn child could safely fly? I'm obviously not a mother, but to me this is completely inconsistent with what a mother would have done.
Boarding an 8-hour flight (longer actually, if you count the stopover in Seattle), without informing the airline or the air crew that you are pregnant and that your water had broke, is just plain reckless. What about consideration for the passengers on the flight, should the flight have to be diverted? But more importantly, did she really want to be in the position of giving birth to a premature, special needs baby 30,000 feet in the air? If she really was pregnant, what does that say about her judgment and parental fitness?
Upon arriving on the ground in Anchorage, where there are hospitals with facilities and trained staff to deal with premature births and special needs babies, Palin decides to bypass these hospitals in order to drive an additional 45 minutes to Wasilla, to a less-capable facility to give birth. Again, if she was really pregnant, why take the extra time, and why go to a hospital with lesser facilities? It is reported on the web that her doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, a family practitioner and a recognized expert in Child and Adult Sexual Abuse (not an OB/GYN) had affiliations with the hospitals in Anchorage, and could have met Palin at one of them, alleviating the need for the 45-minute car trip to Wasilla and allowing for better facilities, and other trained staff to be present.
In short, if Gov. Palin was in fact Trig's mother, she made several very questionable calls regarding his health.
Now, here's another piece of the puzzle. Then 16-year old Bristol Palin was reportedly out of school for between 5 and 8 months (reports vary) during this time, with an alleged case of mono. She was also reported to have gained weight, and bloggers are buzzing about a picture allegedly taken in December 2007 in which Bristol is beginning to show, but Gov. Palin most definitely is not. Too hard to make a definitive call from a photo.
Gov. Palin has a long history with Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, going back to Palin's days as the Mayor of Wasilla, AK. In 2002, Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson was named the Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians. She was assisted by a glowing reference from then-mayor Palin. However, their association did not end there. Below are excerpts from a press release:
May 8, 2007, Juneau, AK – Governor Sarah Palin today announced the appointment of 14 Alaskans to the Alaska Health Care Strategies Planning Council.
Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of Wasilla is a private practice family physician and the 2002 National Family Physician of the Year from the American Academy of Family Physicians. In 1999, Baldwin-Johnson co-founded and is the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, and since 2005 has served as a consultant and trainer on child abuse issues. Baldwin-Johnson graduated from the University of Washington School of Medicine where she participated in the WWAMI Medical School program.
For some reason, this press release has recently been removed from the web, but is available in cache at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:e0U6tvTkFHwJ:gov.state.ak.us/archive.php%3Fid%3D368%26type%3D1+%22Cathy+Baldwin-Johnson%22+palin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us
Just suppose, for an instant, that Gov. Palin is NOT the mother. Here is a "fictitious" or alternate version of events, which is much, much more consistent with the information above: Bristol Palin, a 16-year old high school student, becomes pregnant, but is ignorant of this fact or keeps it hidden from her family as long as she possibly can. When her pregnancy is revealed to her family, her mother goes into crisis management mode. An abortion is simply not an option for a pro-life Republican Governor's unmarried minor daughter. However, carrying the baby to term will highlight the failure of the Gov. Palin's promotion of abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. The decision is made to announce the mother's pregnancy, perhaps offsetting it with her daughter's actual pregnancy by a month or so to give the appearance of a premature birth. This also has the advantage of requiring less time for the charade to play out in public. Gov. Palin announces her "pregnancy" to a stunned statewide audience, and declares that she is showing, just a bit. The winter and early spring months in Alaska favor bulky clothing anyways, and who would really doubt her pregnancy claim? In April, the prospect of delivering the keynote address to the governor's conference on energy is just too juicy a plum to pass up. So, crossing their fingers, Sarah and Todd Palin head to Dallas, despite the fact that a pregnant woman in her eighth month would not normally be traveling on 8+ hour airplane flights. Early in the morning on the 17th, disaster strikes, as Bristol's water breaks, and the Governor realizes that she has to get back to Alaska as quickly as she can--but not before claiming that her water has broken--and not before seizing her moment in the spotlight to give her speech. Instead of visiting a Dallas-area doctor to check on the baby before flying, which a concerned mother would do, she boards the flight to Alaska. She does not see a doctor or inform the airlines or flight crew because there is no baby--and she cannot run the risk of someone actually examining her. On arrival in Alaska, she does not go to the better equipped and staffed Anchorage hospitals, or have Baldwin-Johnson meet her there, because, again, there is no baby. She drives to Wasilla, AK where her long-time friend and crony Baldwin-Johnson is ready to maintain the charade. Palin, the one-time mayor and current resident of Wasilla, is in a locality that she can control, and bring the drama to its conclusion, when her daughter Bristol delivers Trig away from all eyes.
Now, the events I have outlined above are purely "fiction," an academic exercise in "how" this could have been carried out, just barely touching on the "why." The scenario above entails quite a bit of risk on Gov. Palin's part, but there is the potential for a big pay-off (or at least the avoidance of a catastrophe) if she can pull it off. Here are some of the really big "whys" that would have prompted them to take the gamble:
First, as a pro-life, pro-abstinence Republican, her credibility would take a huge hit if her unmarried minor daughter gives birth. Palin may have been able to continue in Alaskan politics, but she would have no hope for national exposure in Republican circles.
Second, by her knowingly carrying a Down Syndrome baby to term while in the Governor's mansion, she has scored tremendous points with the pro-life crowd. Talk about street cred! She is now the poster woman for both the pro-life movement and for working mothers.
Third, there was probably some level of concern for Bristol's well-being, and possibly some small amount for her reputation as well. Politically, this gave the Governor a fall-back plan if her ruse was discovered--she was just a devoted mother covering up for her daughter. Of course, she would be finished on the national stage, but probably could have continued on in Alaska as the darling of the motherhood crowd who may even view her deceit as the commendable defense of her child.
Fourth, after working out the timing (winter/spring months) they realized that they could probably get away with it, if they were audacious enough.
Fifth, due to their connections and loyalties in small-town Wasilla, the plan had a reasonable chance of success. Why would Dr. Baldwin-Johnson be a willing participant? Probably for several reasons, among them that she was most likely Bristol's doctor for a long time and would have a genuine desire to take care of her if she could, and her treatment of her would be covered by confidentiality practices. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson, as the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, would have a natural inclination to protect Bristol, especially if the pregnancy was the result of abuse or a sexual assault.
So . . . where does this all lead? Only time will tell. Not surprisingly, reaction to the idea is sharply divided along partisan lines. An interesting wrinkle is that the liberal/Democratic base is divided as well, with some convinced that this story is planted in an effort to trick the liberal media into launching an utterly condemnable attack on Gov. Palin.
I doubt that the McCain camp will even publicly acknowledge the story and so will take no steps to debunk it. It is way too red-hot for the Obama camp to touch, even through surrogates, unless portions of it can be independently verified. In a democracy, it would be wonderful if this story could be investigated thoroughly and either be laid to rest as a baseless rumor or, if true, have its rightful impact on the career of an unsuitable VP candidate who clearly was not vetted by the McCain camp.
Here's one of the underlying ironies: this story is most likely too hot to touch by the MSM because of its potential implications. However, even if portions of it are true--as stipulated by Gov. Palin herself--it raises some very serious and legitimate questions about her judgment. If she was indeed with child, do we really want to put a woman, in her early 40's, who would undertake two 8+ hour flights while 8 months pregnant with a special needs child--the second flight taking place after she had been leaking amniotic fluid for several hours and without having consulting a doctor for a hands-on medical exam--in the White House?
A Bold Prediction
OK, I'm really going to go out on a limb here. Here's one of the boldest predictions of the political campaign to date: Gov. Sarah Palin, citing "personal and family reasons," will remove herself from the Vice Presidential slot on the McCain ticket.
WOW! It will be a shocker, but its the only way forward for the McCain camp. My speculation is that they will use the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to push back some or all of the convention while they scramble to find a suitable VP pick.
Here's why this needs to happen for the McCain camp: Palin is a "dirty bomb" waiting to explode and take McCain down with her. She was not fully vetted by the McCain camp--this much is clear from comments from within the Republican Party. A basic background check would have revealed to them that there are actually several time bombs waiting to go off that collectively will completely shatter her reputation and keep the focus of the news coverage of the McCain/Palin ticket on her negatives rather than on his message.
First, let me state the obvious flaws that she presents as a candidate, which provide the context in which the subsequent issues will be examined by the press and by the public. She has no national experience, no foreign policy experience, and no applicable executive experience. As the year-and-a-half-old Governor of Alaska, she has not had to wrestle with the issues that confront virtually all other states. Oil revenues provide a huge infusion of capital that means that Alaska always has a budget surplus to work with, instead of a shrinking pool of funds stretched to the breaking point, like many of the lower 48 states do. She has never really had to make tough budgetary recommendations. Alaska does not face many of the issues that are so difficult in the rest of the country--it is a unique area with unique challenges.
Basically, Palin brings nothing to the table, except for her gender, her far-right conservative views, her reputation as a "maverick," and her ethics. While those may be strong positives, once her proclaimed basic values are exposed as false, she has nothing left to stand on, except her gender and her far-right appeal, and casts a deep shadow of ethical hypocrisy on the McCain claim that she is a reformer who can help him clean up Washington. A candidate with a deeper record to fall back on could sustain a few hits to his/her record, but to one without any substance, such as Palin, a few hits will be all that is needed to sink her credibility and throw the harshest criticism onto McCain for making such a reckless choice for the nation's second highest office.
I don't think that anyone--even the most brain-dead evangelical--can say with a straight face that selecting a woman is not a transparent ploy to pander to disaffected female voters. Her compelling personal story as a self-described "hockey mom," loving wife of a snowmobile racer, and mother of five is interesting on the surface and novel in a presidential race. However, there are rumblings of a deeper story and a darker secret within the Palin family: Trig Palin, Gov. Palin's "fifth child," may actually be her daughter Bristol's baby (a topic for another post.). Once (if) this story breaks in the MSM, Palin is (or should be) finished. While some may support a mother's decision to cover for her daughter, this is clearly not suitable behavior for a State Governor or a Vice Presidential candidate. The coverup involved repeatedly lying, developing an elaborate and false delivery story, and probably included falsifying the child's birth certificate. All of this conduct is unsuitable for even a politician (except in the Bush administration) and speaks directly to her lack of integrity and willingness to deceive.
In her acceptance speech, Palin claimed to have said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." A basic check of the record in the Alaskan papers has her very firmly in favor of the bridge before the national furor over earmarks started. The State of Alaska actually canceled the bridge plans, but kept the funds. Ironically, they are currently using a portion of those funds to construct feeder roads to the non-existent bridge, which cuts directly against her claim of fiscal responsibility and combating wasteful spending. But, more importantly, Gov. Palin's objections to the bridge had nothing to do with wasteful government spending or reform politics--she regretted that Congress did not come up with the additional funds required to complete the project. From her press release, dated 21 September 2007:
“Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the
answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about
$329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little
interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,”
Governor Palin added.
The MSM needs to examine her record of public statements and interview some of the residents of Ketchikan, AK, where she aggressively advocated for the bridge during her gubernatorial campaign, for their opinion of the Governor and her abrupt reversal of position. At best, this is a clear flip-flop, done for personal political gain. At worst, this speaks directly to her lack of ethics in her acceptance speech. Either way, it definitely tarnishes her reformer credentials, removes one of the only positive claims that she can make about herself, and calls into question her integrity, yet again.
Then there is "Troopergate." Gov. Palin is currently being investigated for abusing her position to retaliate against Walter Monegan for failing to fire her former brother-in-law. An ethics crusader being investigated for ethical violations. Nothing novel there, but this story will continue to receive attention throughout several news cycles leading up to the election. Based on what has been reported, Palin, her family and her staff certainly acted inappropriately--and did so repeatedly. Even if the investigation concludes that she did not do anything illegal, she certainly created an "appearance of impropriety" and acted in a manner unbecoming of a Vice Presidential candidate.
I'm sure that other revelations will continue to surface. The sum total of them will show that Gov. Palin is a deeply flawed candidate and an extremely irresponsible selection for the McCain ticket. Negative news stories about Palin will plague the McCain camp until they cut her loose. Of course, McCain can't simply say "I've made a mistake" when it comes to the most important decision he has made so far as his party's presumptive nominee, so the only other option is for Gov. Palin to cite "personal and family reasons." And she does have her daughter's baby with Down Syndrome to care for back home in Alaska.
WOW! It will be a shocker, but its the only way forward for the McCain camp. My speculation is that they will use the excuse of Hurricane Gustav to push back some or all of the convention while they scramble to find a suitable VP pick.
Here's why this needs to happen for the McCain camp: Palin is a "dirty bomb" waiting to explode and take McCain down with her. She was not fully vetted by the McCain camp--this much is clear from comments from within the Republican Party. A basic background check would have revealed to them that there are actually several time bombs waiting to go off that collectively will completely shatter her reputation and keep the focus of the news coverage of the McCain/Palin ticket on her negatives rather than on his message.
First, let me state the obvious flaws that she presents as a candidate, which provide the context in which the subsequent issues will be examined by the press and by the public. She has no national experience, no foreign policy experience, and no applicable executive experience. As the year-and-a-half-old Governor of Alaska, she has not had to wrestle with the issues that confront virtually all other states. Oil revenues provide a huge infusion of capital that means that Alaska always has a budget surplus to work with, instead of a shrinking pool of funds stretched to the breaking point, like many of the lower 48 states do. She has never really had to make tough budgetary recommendations. Alaska does not face many of the issues that are so difficult in the rest of the country--it is a unique area with unique challenges.
Basically, Palin brings nothing to the table, except for her gender, her far-right conservative views, her reputation as a "maverick," and her ethics. While those may be strong positives, once her proclaimed basic values are exposed as false, she has nothing left to stand on, except her gender and her far-right appeal, and casts a deep shadow of ethical hypocrisy on the McCain claim that she is a reformer who can help him clean up Washington. A candidate with a deeper record to fall back on could sustain a few hits to his/her record, but to one without any substance, such as Palin, a few hits will be all that is needed to sink her credibility and throw the harshest criticism onto McCain for making such a reckless choice for the nation's second highest office.
I don't think that anyone--even the most brain-dead evangelical--can say with a straight face that selecting a woman is not a transparent ploy to pander to disaffected female voters. Her compelling personal story as a self-described "hockey mom," loving wife of a snowmobile racer, and mother of five is interesting on the surface and novel in a presidential race. However, there are rumblings of a deeper story and a darker secret within the Palin family: Trig Palin, Gov. Palin's "fifth child," may actually be her daughter Bristol's baby (a topic for another post.). Once (if) this story breaks in the MSM, Palin is (or should be) finished. While some may support a mother's decision to cover for her daughter, this is clearly not suitable behavior for a State Governor or a Vice Presidential candidate. The coverup involved repeatedly lying, developing an elaborate and false delivery story, and probably included falsifying the child's birth certificate. All of this conduct is unsuitable for even a politician (except in the Bush administration) and speaks directly to her lack of integrity and willingness to deceive.
In her acceptance speech, Palin claimed to have said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." A basic check of the record in the Alaskan papers has her very firmly in favor of the bridge before the national furor over earmarks started. The State of Alaska actually canceled the bridge plans, but kept the funds. Ironically, they are currently using a portion of those funds to construct feeder roads to the non-existent bridge, which cuts directly against her claim of fiscal responsibility and combating wasteful spending. But, more importantly, Gov. Palin's objections to the bridge had nothing to do with wasteful government spending or reform politics--she regretted that Congress did not come up with the additional funds required to complete the project. From her press release, dated 21 September 2007:
“Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the
answer,” said Governor Palin. “Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about
$329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it’s clear that Congress has little
interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island,”
Governor Palin added.
The MSM needs to examine her record of public statements and interview some of the residents of Ketchikan, AK, where she aggressively advocated for the bridge during her gubernatorial campaign, for their opinion of the Governor and her abrupt reversal of position. At best, this is a clear flip-flop, done for personal political gain. At worst, this speaks directly to her lack of ethics in her acceptance speech. Either way, it definitely tarnishes her reformer credentials, removes one of the only positive claims that she can make about herself, and calls into question her integrity, yet again.
Then there is "Troopergate." Gov. Palin is currently being investigated for abusing her position to retaliate against Walter Monegan for failing to fire her former brother-in-law. An ethics crusader being investigated for ethical violations. Nothing novel there, but this story will continue to receive attention throughout several news cycles leading up to the election. Based on what has been reported, Palin, her family and her staff certainly acted inappropriately--and did so repeatedly. Even if the investigation concludes that she did not do anything illegal, she certainly created an "appearance of impropriety" and acted in a manner unbecoming of a Vice Presidential candidate.
I'm sure that other revelations will continue to surface. The sum total of them will show that Gov. Palin is a deeply flawed candidate and an extremely irresponsible selection for the McCain ticket. Negative news stories about Palin will plague the McCain camp until they cut her loose. Of course, McCain can't simply say "I've made a mistake" when it comes to the most important decision he has made so far as his party's presumptive nominee, so the only other option is for Gov. Palin to cite "personal and family reasons." And she does have her daughter's baby with Down Syndrome to care for back home in Alaska.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Commander-in-Chief of what, exactly?
One of the McCain campaigns talking points is that Gov. Palin has vital experience as the Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard. While this is technically true, let me describe exactly what this means for those unfamiliar with the National Guard system.
State Governors are the titular, elected civilian heads of their respective State Guard. However, few have much idea of what their troops do on a daily basis (or at their monthly drills.). I think that it would even be a fair assessment to say that the role of many State Governors is more or less ceremonial.
The military training decisions and preparations are made by the State Adjutant General, who is a uniformed (and usually highly experienced) officer, frequently with two star (Major General) or three star (Lieutenant General) rank.
The role of the Governor is typically limited to making decisions as to if and when the troops are called up to deal with statewide emergencies, such as natural disasters. Should National Guard troops be utilized in any type of combat role--or used in any capacity on foreign soil--they are under Federal control and the State Governor has no role in their strategic deployment or tactical operations.
So, in the case of Alaska, Gov. Palin is not leading combat troops that are manning the border to prevent an invasion from Canada. When her state troops are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan,
her role is largely limited to traveling to deployment areas to shake hands with the troops and pose for photo ops.
Putting this forth as a qualification in foreign policy or international relations is an embarrassingly transparent claim to those who know how much (or actually how little) the State Governors have to do with their guard units. And, as one of the least populous states, Alaska probably has one of the smaller State Guards.
State Governors are the titular, elected civilian heads of their respective State Guard. However, few have much idea of what their troops do on a daily basis (or at their monthly drills.). I think that it would even be a fair assessment to say that the role of many State Governors is more or less ceremonial.
The military training decisions and preparations are made by the State Adjutant General, who is a uniformed (and usually highly experienced) officer, frequently with two star (Major General) or three star (Lieutenant General) rank.
The role of the Governor is typically limited to making decisions as to if and when the troops are called up to deal with statewide emergencies, such as natural disasters. Should National Guard troops be utilized in any type of combat role--or used in any capacity on foreign soil--they are under Federal control and the State Governor has no role in their strategic deployment or tactical operations.
So, in the case of Alaska, Gov. Palin is not leading combat troops that are manning the border to prevent an invasion from Canada. When her state troops are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan,
her role is largely limited to traveling to deployment areas to shake hands with the troops and pose for photo ops.
Putting this forth as a qualification in foreign policy or international relations is an embarrassingly transparent claim to those who know how much (or actually how little) the State Governors have to do with their guard units. And, as one of the least populous states, Alaska probably has one of the smaller State Guards.
OK, enough is ENOUGH!
I took a long break from blogging. Several reasons for this, but the main one is that I felt pretty good about the delegate count math behind the Obama vs. Clinton primary slugfest. Most of my ideas on the contest were reflected in other blogs and websites.
The sharp stick that has poked me and awakened my ire is Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate. As a veteran, I had always had a deep respect for Sen. McCain, and I would have voted for him, had Sen. Clinton been the Democratic Party's nominee. However, the selection of a running mate so grossly unqualified, has really crossed the line.
McCain cannot claim to have America's interests first and foremost in his heart and mind when he has selected such an inexperienced politician to serve in an office that's a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Even more damming is the fact that McCain's staff has admitted that McCain himself has had very little contact with Palin. How can he possibly advocate that she has the credentials to step into the Presidency should he be incapacitated? Where is the record of service that he saw that put his mind at rest with her credentials? How can McCain say with a straight face that they will make a good governing team when he doesn't know her very well?
At her introduction today, she looked like a bubbly McCain cheerleader rather than a VP pick. The age difference was so strong that if you tuned in without knowing who she was, it would not have been surprising for her to have introduced her "dad" John McCain to the crowd.
Palin had very little to say about herself (her resume is razor thin) and there is nothing in her background to suggest that she could be even remotely effective at the national level. McCain's selection of her as a running mate puts his judgment--and, yes, even his patriotism--in question. To me, as a veteran of the Armed Forces, who was subject to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, I do view this as a failing in McCain's patriotism. I am disgusted with Sen. McCain for making such a blatantly pandering choice that clearly goes against everything he has stood for as a Navy pilot and veteran.
The sharp stick that has poked me and awakened my ire is Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate. As a veteran, I had always had a deep respect for Sen. McCain, and I would have voted for him, had Sen. Clinton been the Democratic Party's nominee. However, the selection of a running mate so grossly unqualified, has really crossed the line.
McCain cannot claim to have America's interests first and foremost in his heart and mind when he has selected such an inexperienced politician to serve in an office that's a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Even more damming is the fact that McCain's staff has admitted that McCain himself has had very little contact with Palin. How can he possibly advocate that she has the credentials to step into the Presidency should he be incapacitated? Where is the record of service that he saw that put his mind at rest with her credentials? How can McCain say with a straight face that they will make a good governing team when he doesn't know her very well?
At her introduction today, she looked like a bubbly McCain cheerleader rather than a VP pick. The age difference was so strong that if you tuned in without knowing who she was, it would not have been surprising for her to have introduced her "dad" John McCain to the crowd.
Palin had very little to say about herself (her resume is razor thin) and there is nothing in her background to suggest that she could be even remotely effective at the national level. McCain's selection of her as a running mate puts his judgment--and, yes, even his patriotism--in question. To me, as a veteran of the Armed Forces, who was subject to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, I do view this as a failing in McCain's patriotism. I am disgusted with Sen. McCain for making such a blatantly pandering choice that clearly goes against everything he has stood for as a Navy pilot and veteran.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
For Whom Does the Phone Ring?
Hillary Clinton is setting herself up for failure. Should the unlikely and unfortunate happen and she is selected as the Democratic Party's nominee, she has gift-wrapped and delivered a great political ad to the McCain camp. You see, the phone's a-ringin' at 3 a.m., and who would you rather have pick it up, Hillary Clinton--or John McCain?
HRC's direct foreign policy experience is pretty slim, as is the norm for most U.S. Senators. Crisis management experience, another part of her pitch, is also not a strong suit of Senators. Former governors frequently run for the Presidency based in part on their record at the helm of a state government where they have often had to react in times of crisis. Even some mayors have a legitimate claim to more "red phone" experience than Senators (anybody remember the former front runner Rudy Giuliani?)
As far as National Defense goes (and the ability to act decisively as the Commander-in-Chief), does she really want to promote a comparison between herself and John McCain? That's exactly what will happen in the general election--using the exact same ad that she is using against Sen. Obama.
Clinton's short-sighted strategy is counting on the fact that Democratic Party primary voters will view her as tougher than Obama, and that she will be perceived as being the better Commander-in-Chief of the two. Her implication is that she has what it takes to order the troops in, drop the "big one," etc. and that Obama does not. And the further implication is that voters actually believe that there are 3 a.m. "red phone" situations on a regular basis. In the eight years that she spent in the White House, her husband did receive a few 3 a.m. phone calls, but most were from interns and did not involve National Security in any way whatsoever.
The reality is that running the country is not like a continuous episode of "24." There are real foreign policy challenges--and even crises. But there are always--or should always be--an abundance of advisers and experts (hint: the State Department and the Pentagon) that are working on potential problems, drafting contingency plans and recommending balanced and measures responses to unfolding events. The President should never be caught unawares at 3 a.m. and base policy on the first thoughts in his or her groggy brain. Personally, I prefer a President who uses sound judgment, consults with advisers, and takes all possible steps to foresee and address conflicts before they result in a "middle of the night crisis."
But the real issue about Clinton's ads is not who can make the best late night snap decision when lives are in the balance. Its character assassination. Clinton's ad is either a good case of seeing only the short term gains of a strategy or being so completely desperate that she'll try anything. Either way, it is not to the credit or the general election benefit of the Democratic Party. Clinton is either harming her party by going negative against Obama, the eventual nominee, or framing an issue in a way that will torpedo her own electability if she prevails in the nomination battle.
So, back to the original question. Who would you rather have pick up the phone at 3 a.m., Hillary Clinton--or John McCain?
HRC's direct foreign policy experience is pretty slim, as is the norm for most U.S. Senators. Crisis management experience, another part of her pitch, is also not a strong suit of Senators. Former governors frequently run for the Presidency based in part on their record at the helm of a state government where they have often had to react in times of crisis. Even some mayors have a legitimate claim to more "red phone" experience than Senators (anybody remember the former front runner Rudy Giuliani?)
As far as National Defense goes (and the ability to act decisively as the Commander-in-Chief), does she really want to promote a comparison between herself and John McCain? That's exactly what will happen in the general election--using the exact same ad that she is using against Sen. Obama.
Clinton's short-sighted strategy is counting on the fact that Democratic Party primary voters will view her as tougher than Obama, and that she will be perceived as being the better Commander-in-Chief of the two. Her implication is that she has what it takes to order the troops in, drop the "big one," etc. and that Obama does not. And the further implication is that voters actually believe that there are 3 a.m. "red phone" situations on a regular basis. In the eight years that she spent in the White House, her husband did receive a few 3 a.m. phone calls, but most were from interns and did not involve National Security in any way whatsoever.
The reality is that running the country is not like a continuous episode of "24." There are real foreign policy challenges--and even crises. But there are always--or should always be--an abundance of advisers and experts (hint: the State Department and the Pentagon) that are working on potential problems, drafting contingency plans and recommending balanced and measures responses to unfolding events. The President should never be caught unawares at 3 a.m. and base policy on the first thoughts in his or her groggy brain. Personally, I prefer a President who uses sound judgment, consults with advisers, and takes all possible steps to foresee and address conflicts before they result in a "middle of the night crisis."
But the real issue about Clinton's ads is not who can make the best late night snap decision when lives are in the balance. Its character assassination. Clinton's ad is either a good case of seeing only the short term gains of a strategy or being so completely desperate that she'll try anything. Either way, it is not to the credit or the general election benefit of the Democratic Party. Clinton is either harming her party by going negative against Obama, the eventual nominee, or framing an issue in a way that will torpedo her own electability if she prevails in the nomination battle.
So, back to the original question. Who would you rather have pick up the phone at 3 a.m., Hillary Clinton--or John McCain?
My First Democratic Caucus
I attended my first Democratic Party caucus tonight, and dutifully cast my second vote of the day for Barack Obama. Overall, I was not impressed with the Democratic Party; the caucus was disorganized and confusing. Altogether, there were about 150 caucus goers from two precincts crammed into a single room. Initially, they had only one line for each precinct, but eventually they set up some additional stations. The whole process took about 45 minutes.
I'm sorry to report that the Hillary supporters--a group of militant old ladies--managed to carry the day by three votes.
The worst part of the experience, however, is that I had to have my voter registration card stamped "DEMOCRAT" in order to vote in the primary and attend the caucus. So, for now, I guess I'm a "card carrying democrat."
I'm sorry to report that the Hillary supporters--a group of militant old ladies--managed to carry the day by three votes.
The worst part of the experience, however, is that I had to have my voter registration card stamped "DEMOCRAT" in order to vote in the primary and attend the caucus. So, for now, I guess I'm a "card carrying democrat."
Welcome!
Welcome to my new blog! I've been spending an awful lot of time reading and thinking about the primary elections, and my intention is to use this blog to provide a "reality check" for my readers. Frequently, the main stream media misses the mark--either intentionally, or by failing to analyze the crap that they're fed by one of the campaigns. I'll try to cut through the spin to get to the central issues. Of course, I have my own bias, but I'll do my best to be up front about where I stand.
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