Conceding the Experience Argument

Pundits have correctly pointed out that McCain's selection of Palin signifies that he is giving up on the "Obama lacks experience" argument. Since this seemed to have been making some headway, why give it up?

Because of Obama's political ability.

First, Obama showed a true statesmanship on his European and Mideastern tour. Can he get results? Honestly, we don't know. But he is clearly well-liked abroad, by both foreign leaders and foreign populations, which is a big plus to America after 8 years of "Yee-haw Diplomacy."

Second, Obama selected Joe Biden as his running mate, placing one of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Senate on his ticket. A great move, especially if Biden continues to praise Obama's judgment and reinforces his eagerness to work alongside President Obama.

Third, Bill Clinton delivered a pretty good endorsement of Obama at the Democratic National Convention. As a former Commander-in-Chief, although not well-liked in all quarters, his affirmation of Obama's readiness to lead carries great weight with most Democratic and many Independent voters. A former C-in-C's opinion in favor of essentially outweighs a fellow senator's opinion against.

And most importantly, Obama looked pretty damn presidential in Denver during his acceptance speech. 38 million viewers saw this, and, unless they are die-hard Republicans, could not help but be impressed. Trying to "unconvince" these 38 million viewers that what they saw with their own eyes wasn't real was a losing battle.

McCain's only move left open was to go after the "change" banner by adding a reformer and true Washington outsider to the ticket in an effort to reclaim his "maverick" label. It certainly helps that she's a woman--I believe that this became a non-negotiable requirement in his mind. With Palin, McCain also both shored up his conservative base with a pro-life, pro-gun running mate and sought to distance himself from the millstone around his neck known as "W." I believe that the decision to pivot and go after the change mantle instead of hammering away with "lack of experience" was initiated prior to the early days of the Democratic National Convention and validated by Obama's masterful speech Thursday night.

Adding a woman was a great move--and, incidentally, one that I predicted a few hours prior to his announcement of Palin. But who in their right mind would have foreseen that specific pick?

The big problem for McCain is that, after deciding to pivot so sharply, he and his staff ran out of time and did not examine Palin very thoroughly (apparently, hardly at all.). McCain barely knows who she is. My gut tells me that he selected her--someone so grossly unqualified for the VP slot--because he was gambling that she had a very slim record that was devoid of serious negatives and, more importantly, because she was one of the only women who would take the job!

McCain's campaign is in trouble. Facing a fairly united and highly-energized Democratic Party, he needed to really shake things up, and selecting a woman was a bold move. It would have been a bolder move had he found a credible woman to place on his ticket, but my guess is that none of the qualified women wanted to join what they saw as a losing ticket.

In this election, there is very little potential downside for Palin. She is not known outside Alaska. Her beauty pageant ego would eventually like to be worshiped in the lower 48, preferably at the national level. As a first-term governor in the middle of her first term, winning the White House this year is not essential. She can relish the national exposure for two months, lose, and then return to a hero's welcome in Alaska for having "fought the good fight" and putting Alaska in the public eye. And as long as her skeletons stay buried, she has a chance of remaining one of America's media darlings with a chance to return to prominence as a Senator or even as a future presidential candidate in 8 years.

We'll see how it all plays out, but the more that I have looked into Palin, the more negatives that surface. She has had a strong outpouring of support from single-issue voters (pro-life, pro-gun, women who want to vote for a woman regardless of the cost to the country.). Thinking individuals will see a somewhat intelligent and opportunistic but uninformed politician who is in no way ready to lead at the national level. They will see a complete lack of experience--and see that the lack of experience charge now belongs to Obama campaign to use.