OK conspiracy theorists, here we go again. . .

The internet rumor mill has spawned a very interesting theory about Gov. Palin's fifth child, Trig Paxson Van Palin, who was born with Down Syndrome on 18 April 2008. The gist of the rumor is that the mother of the child is not Gov. Sarah Palin, but rather her daughter, Bristol. The case for Bristol's motherhood, while circumstantial, is fairly compelling. When added together, several of the "facts" and conjectures are completely inconsistent with Sarah's motherhood, but completely consistent with Bristol's motherhood.

Paraphrase of Gov. Palin's version: she became pregnant, but decided to tell no one, not even her closest friends and advisers, until the seventh month of her pregnancy, at which time she felt that she was finally beginning to show. On 17 April 2008, in the eighth month of her pregnancy, she began leaking amniotic fluid in the morning while she was attending a governor's conference on energy in Dallas, TX. After a phone consultation with her physician in Alaska, she stayed to deliver the keynote address, and then left for the airport where she boarded an Alaskan Airways flight. She did not inform the airline that she was pregnant or that her water had broken before boarding the flight, because she was not legally required to do so. During the 8 hours in the air (not including a stopover in Seattle), she did not inform the flight crew of her pregnancy because she felt that she was not showing and did not want to make a fuss. Arriving in Anchorage, Alaska, she and her husband continued on an additional 45 minutes to get to her home town of Wasilla, where she delivered the baby.

There was almost instant skepticism of this story up in Alaska; it was reported on at www.redditt.com over 4 months ago.

Here are some "facts" that do not seem to jive with Gov. Palin's sequence of events.

Everyone was "shocked and awed" by her pregnancy announcement. Her staff had not even been informed of her pregnancy, which is very surprising on two points. First, a woman in her last trimester of pregnancy needs to look after her unborn child, and a caring mother would have made the announcement--at least privately to her staff--so that they could help watch her schedule for events that might be damaging to her pregnancy. Most physicians would recommend a dramatic reduction in air travel, for example, which could effect her mobility around the state and impact her schedule and the performance of official duties. Second, if she was at elevated risk to be incapacitated for any period of time, the Lieutenant Governor should have been informed, as well as the State Adjutant General. This is a matter of competent leadership.

An article from the Anchorage Daily News on 6 March 2008 (less than a month and a half before she allegedly gave birth) reveals that there was widespread surprise to her pregnancy announcement: http://www.adn.com/front/story/336402.html She simply did not look or act pregnant, and the announcement that she was 7 months pregnant was generally met with disbelief.

Other anecdotal evidence can be found on the web that she was clearly not behaving as a pregnant woman in terms of limiting her activities or showing her pregnancy through her fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth months. She is in many photographs where she does not appear to be pregnant; many others are inconclusive. See the image from the National Governor's Association Conference on 25 February 2008, for example, at: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca9501010a0/?vgnextoid=3ef7315eff9e7110VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=5f0f749a71302010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD

Skepticism about the details of the pregnancy, at least as they were related by Gov. Palin, began appearing almost immediately. If you read between the lines in this article in the Anchorage Daily News, the reporter was questioning her actions in flying back to Alaska, which would have been against the advice of most competent physicians, and includes some relevant comments from the flight crew: http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html

Had Gov. Palin really been pregnant (as a mother in her early 40's, carrying a special needs child that was about a month premature), and had leaked amniotic fluid, would not the rational course of action to protect the health of the child have been to have seen a doctor in Dallas, at least for a checkup to ensure that she and her unborn child could safely fly? I'm obviously not a mother, but to me this is completely inconsistent with what a mother would have done.

Boarding an 8-hour flight (longer actually, if you count the stopover in Seattle), without informing the airline or the air crew that you are pregnant and that your water had broke, is just plain reckless. What about consideration for the passengers on the flight, should the flight have to be diverted? But more importantly, did she really want to be in the position of giving birth to a premature, special needs baby 30,000 feet in the air? If she really was pregnant, what does that say about her judgment and parental fitness?

Upon arriving on the ground in Anchorage, where there are hospitals with facilities and trained staff to deal with premature births and special needs babies, Palin decides to bypass these hospitals in order to drive an additional 45 minutes to Wasilla, to a less-capable facility to give birth. Again, if she was really pregnant, why take the extra time, and why go to a hospital with lesser facilities? It is reported on the web that her doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, a family practitioner and a recognized expert in Child and Adult Sexual Abuse (not an OB/GYN) had affiliations with the hospitals in Anchorage, and could have met Palin at one of them, alleviating the need for the 45-minute car trip to Wasilla and allowing for better facilities, and other trained staff to be present.

In short, if Gov. Palin was in fact Trig's mother, she made several very questionable calls regarding his health.

Now, here's another piece of the puzzle. Then 16-year old Bristol Palin was reportedly out of school for between 5 and 8 months (reports vary) during this time, with an alleged case of mono. She was also reported to have gained weight, and bloggers are buzzing about a picture allegedly taken in December 2007 in which Bristol is beginning to show, but Gov. Palin most definitely is not. Too hard to make a definitive call from a photo.

Gov. Palin has a long history with Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, going back to Palin's days as the Mayor of Wasilla, AK. In 2002, Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson was named the Family Physician of the Year by the American Academy of Family Physicians. She was assisted by a glowing reference from then-mayor Palin. However, their association did not end there. Below are excerpts from a press release:

May 8, 2007, Juneau, AK – Governor Sarah Palin today announced the appointment of 14 Alaskans to the Alaska Health Care Strategies Planning Council.

Dr. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of Wasilla is a private practice family physician and the 2002 National Family Physician of the Year from the American Academy of Family Physicians. In 1999, Baldwin-Johnson co-founded and is the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, and since 2005 has served as a consultant and trainer on child abuse issues. Baldwin-Johnson graduated from the University of Washington School of Medicine where she participated in the WWAMI Medical School program.

For some reason, this press release has recently been removed from the web, but is available in cache at: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:e0U6tvTkFHwJ:gov.state.ak.us/archive.php%3Fid%3D368%26type%3D1+%22Cathy+Baldwin-Johnson%22+palin&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us

Just suppose, for an instant, that Gov. Palin is NOT the mother. Here is a "fictitious" or alternate version of events, which is much, much more consistent with the information above: Bristol Palin, a 16-year old high school student, becomes pregnant, but is ignorant of this fact or keeps it hidden from her family as long as she possibly can. When her pregnancy is revealed to her family, her mother goes into crisis management mode. An abortion is simply not an option for a pro-life Republican Governor's unmarried minor daughter. However, carrying the baby to term will highlight the failure of the Gov. Palin's promotion of abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. The decision is made to announce the mother's pregnancy, perhaps offsetting it with her daughter's actual pregnancy by a month or so to give the appearance of a premature birth. This also has the advantage of requiring less time for the charade to play out in public. Gov. Palin announces her "pregnancy" to a stunned statewide audience, and declares that she is showing, just a bit. The winter and early spring months in Alaska favor bulky clothing anyways, and who would really doubt her pregnancy claim? In April, the prospect of delivering the keynote address to the governor's conference on energy is just too juicy a plum to pass up. So, crossing their fingers, Sarah and Todd Palin head to Dallas, despite the fact that a pregnant woman in her eighth month would not normally be traveling on 8+ hour airplane flights. Early in the morning on the 17th, disaster strikes, as Bristol's water breaks, and the Governor realizes that she has to get back to Alaska as quickly as she can--but not before claiming that her water has broken--and not before seizing her moment in the spotlight to give her speech. Instead of visiting a Dallas-area doctor to check on the baby before flying, which a concerned mother would do, she boards the flight to Alaska. She does not see a doctor or inform the airlines or flight crew because there is no baby--and she cannot run the risk of someone actually examining her. On arrival in Alaska, she does not go to the better equipped and staffed Anchorage hospitals, or have Baldwin-Johnson meet her there, because, again, there is no baby. She drives to Wasilla, AK where her long-time friend and crony Baldwin-Johnson is ready to maintain the charade. Palin, the one-time mayor and current resident of Wasilla, is in a locality that she can control, and bring the drama to its conclusion, when her daughter Bristol delivers Trig away from all eyes.

Now, the events I have outlined above are purely "fiction," an academic exercise in "how" this could have been carried out, just barely touching on the "why." The scenario above entails quite a bit of risk on Gov. Palin's part, but there is the potential for a big pay-off (or at least the avoidance of a catastrophe) if she can pull it off. Here are some of the really big "whys" that would have prompted them to take the gamble:

First, as a pro-life, pro-abstinence Republican, her credibility would take a huge hit if her unmarried minor daughter gives birth. Palin may have been able to continue in Alaskan politics, but she would have no hope for national exposure in Republican circles.

Second, by her knowingly carrying a Down Syndrome baby to term while in the Governor's mansion, she has scored tremendous points with the pro-life crowd. Talk about street cred! She is now the poster woman for both the pro-life movement and for working mothers.

Third, there was probably some level of concern for Bristol's well-being, and possibly some small amount for her reputation as well. Politically, this gave the Governor a fall-back plan if her ruse was discovered--she was just a devoted mother covering up for her daughter. Of course, she would be finished on the national stage, but probably could have continued on in Alaska as the darling of the motherhood crowd who may even view her deceit as the commendable defense of her child.

Fourth, after working out the timing (winter/spring months) they realized that they could probably get away with it, if they were audacious enough.

Fifth, due to their connections and loyalties in small-town Wasilla, the plan had a reasonable chance of success. Why would Dr. Baldwin-Johnson be a willing participant? Probably for several reasons, among them that she was most likely Bristol's doctor for a long time and would have a genuine desire to take care of her if she could, and her treatment of her would be covered by confidentiality practices. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson, as the volunteer medical director of The Children’s Place, would have a natural inclination to protect Bristol, especially if the pregnancy was the result of abuse or a sexual assault.

So . . . where does this all lead? Only time will tell. Not surprisingly, reaction to the idea is sharply divided along partisan lines. An interesting wrinkle is that the liberal/Democratic base is divided as well, with some convinced that this story is planted in an effort to trick the liberal media into launching an utterly condemnable attack on Gov. Palin.

I doubt that the McCain camp will even publicly acknowledge the story and so will take no steps to debunk it. It is way too red-hot for the Obama camp to touch, even through surrogates, unless portions of it can be independently verified. In a democracy, it would be wonderful if this story could be investigated thoroughly and either be laid to rest as a baseless rumor or, if true, have its rightful impact on the career of an unsuitable VP candidate who clearly was not vetted by the McCain camp.

Here's one of the underlying ironies: this story is most likely too hot to touch by the MSM because of its potential implications. However, even if portions of it are true--as stipulated by Gov. Palin herself--it raises some very serious and legitimate questions about her judgment. If she was indeed with child, do we really want to put a woman, in her early 40's, who would undertake two 8+ hour flights while 8 months pregnant with a special needs child--the second flight taking place after she had been leaking amniotic fluid for several hours and without having consulting a doctor for a hands-on medical exam--in the White House?